XTL Biopharmaceutica Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| XTLB Stock | USD 2.44 0.03 1.21% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 1.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.69. XTL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast XTL Biopharmaceutica stock prices and determine the direction of XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of XTL Biopharmaceutica's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although XTL Biopharmaceutica's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of XTL Biopharmaceutica's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of XTL Biopharmaceutica fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of XTL Biopharmaceutica to cross-verify your projections. XTL |
Most investors in XTL Biopharmaceutica cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the XTL Biopharmaceutica's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets XTL Biopharmaceutica's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for XTL Biopharmaceutica is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. XTL Biopharmaceutica Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 1.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict XTL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that XTL Biopharmaceutica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
XTL Biopharmaceutica Stock Forecast Pattern
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XTL Biopharmaceutica Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting XTL Biopharmaceutica's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. XTL Biopharmaceutica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 19.07, respectively. We have considered XTL Biopharmaceutica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of XTL Biopharmaceutica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent XTL Biopharmaceutica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3611 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1753 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.6909 |
Predictive Modules for XTL Biopharmaceutica
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as XTL Biopharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of XTL Biopharmaceutica's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for XTL Biopharmaceutica
For every potential investor in XTL, whether a beginner or expert, XTL Biopharmaceutica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. XTL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in XTL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying XTL Biopharmaceutica's price trends.XTL Biopharmaceutica Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with XTL Biopharmaceutica stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of XTL Biopharmaceutica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing XTL Biopharmaceutica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
XTL Biopharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of XTL Biopharmaceutica's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of XTL Biopharmaceutica's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
XTL Biopharmaceutica Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how XTL Biopharmaceutica stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading XTL Biopharmaceutica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying XTL Biopharmaceutica stock market strength indicators, traders can identify XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
XTL Biopharmaceutica Risk Indicators
The analysis of XTL Biopharmaceutica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in XTL Biopharmaceutica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xtl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.99 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 17.18 | |||
| Variance | 295.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 45.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 18.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (10.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards XTL Biopharmaceutica in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, XTL Biopharmaceutica's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from XTL Biopharmaceutica options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether XTL Biopharmaceuticals offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of XTL Biopharmaceutica's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Xtl Biopharmaceuticals Ltd Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Xtl Biopharmaceuticals Ltd Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of XTL Biopharmaceutica to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Complementary Tools for XTL Stock analysis
When running XTL Biopharmaceutica's price analysis, check to measure XTL Biopharmaceutica's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy XTL Biopharmaceutica is operating at the current time. Most of XTL Biopharmaceutica's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of XTL Biopharmaceutica's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move XTL Biopharmaceutica's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of XTL Biopharmaceutica to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is XTL Biopharmaceutica's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of XTL Biopharmaceutica. If investors know XTL will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about XTL Biopharmaceutica listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.76) | Earnings Share (0.40) | Return On Assets (0.13) | Return On Equity (0.62) |
The market value of XTL Biopharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of XTL that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of XTL Biopharmaceutica's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is XTL Biopharmaceutica's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because XTL Biopharmaceutica's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect XTL Biopharmaceutica's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between XTL Biopharmaceutica's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if XTL Biopharmaceutica is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, XTL Biopharmaceutica's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.