Full Truck Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

YMM Stock  USD 7.27  0.08  1.09%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Full Truck Alliance on the next trading day is expected to be 7.31 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.17  and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.98. Full Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Full Truck stock prices and determine the direction of Full Truck Alliance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Full Truck's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Full Truck's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Full Truck's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Full Truck fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Full Truck to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 42.13, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 20.00. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 491.2 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 784.6 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Full Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Full Truck's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Full Truck's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Full Truck stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Full Truck's open interest, investors have to compare it to Full Truck's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Full Truck is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Full. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Full Truck cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Full Truck's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Full Truck's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Full Truck is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Full Truck Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Full Truck Alliance on the next trading day is expected to be 7.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.98.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Full Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Full Truck's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Full Truck Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Full TruckFull Truck Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Full Truck Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Full Truck's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Full Truck's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.09 and 10.53, respectively. We have considered Full Truck's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.27
7.31
Expected Value
10.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Full Truck stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Full Truck stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.5051
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0177
MADMean absolute deviation0.1691
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0252
SAESum of the absolute errors9.975
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Full Truck Alliance price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Full Truck. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Full Truck

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Full Truck Alliance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Full Truck's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.057.2710.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.158.3711.59
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
9.8310.8011.99
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.080.090.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Full Truck. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Full Truck's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Full Truck's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Full Truck Alliance.

Other Forecasting Options for Full Truck

For every potential investor in Full, whether a beginner or expert, Full Truck's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Full Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Full. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Full Truck's price trends.

Full Truck Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Full Truck stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Full Truck could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Full Truck by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Full Truck Alliance Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Full Truck's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Full Truck's current price.

Full Truck Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Full Truck stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Full Truck shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Full Truck stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Full Truck Alliance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Full Truck Risk Indicators

The analysis of Full Truck's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Full Truck's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting full stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Full Truck in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Full Truck's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Full Truck options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Full Truck Alliance is a strong investment it is important to analyze Full Truck's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Full Truck's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Full Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Full Truck to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

Complementary Tools for Full Stock analysis

When running Full Truck's price analysis, check to measure Full Truck's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Full Truck is operating at the current time. Most of Full Truck's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Full Truck's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Full Truck's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Full Truck to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Commodity Directory
Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Investing Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Is Full Truck's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Full Truck. If investors know Full will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Full Truck listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.056
Earnings Share
0.25
Revenue Per Share
7.992
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.253
Return On Assets
0.0164
The market value of Full Truck Alliance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Full that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Full Truck's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Full Truck's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Full Truck's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Full Truck's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Full Truck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Full Truck is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Full Truck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.