Yirendai Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

YRD Stock  USD 4.51  0.17  3.63%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Yirendai on the next trading day is expected to be 4.51 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.20  and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.35. Yirendai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Yirendai stock prices and determine the direction of Yirendai's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Yirendai's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Yirendai's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Yirendai's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Yirendai fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yirendai to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Yirendai Stock refer to our How to Trade Yirendai Stock guide.
  
At present, Yirendai's Asset Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 1.4 B, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 84.2 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Yirendai Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Yirendai's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Yirendai's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Yirendai stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Yirendai's open interest, investors have to compare it to Yirendai's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Yirendai is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Yirendai. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Yirendai cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Yirendai's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Yirendai's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Yirendai simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Yirendai are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Yirendai prices get older.

Yirendai Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Yirendai on the next trading day is expected to be 4.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.35.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yirendai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yirendai's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Yirendai Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest YirendaiYirendai Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Yirendai Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Yirendai's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yirendai's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 10.30, respectively. We have considered Yirendai's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.51
4.51
Expected Value
10.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yirendai stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yirendai stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4503
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0228
MADMean absolute deviation0.2025
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0433
SAESum of the absolute errors12.35
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Yirendai forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Yirendai observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Yirendai

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yirendai. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Yirendai's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.234.6410.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.152.908.69
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.852.032.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Yirendai. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Yirendai's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Yirendai's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Yirendai.

Other Forecasting Options for Yirendai

For every potential investor in Yirendai, whether a beginner or expert, Yirendai's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yirendai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yirendai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yirendai's price trends.

Yirendai Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yirendai stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yirendai could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yirendai by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Yirendai Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Yirendai's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Yirendai's current price.

Yirendai Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yirendai stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yirendai shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yirendai stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yirendai entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Yirendai Risk Indicators

The analysis of Yirendai's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yirendai's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yirendai stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Yirendai in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Yirendai's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Yirendai options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Yirendai is a strong investment it is important to analyze Yirendai's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Yirendai's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Yirendai Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yirendai to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Yirendai Stock refer to our How to Trade Yirendai Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for Yirendai Stock analysis

When running Yirendai's price analysis, check to measure Yirendai's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Yirendai is operating at the current time. Most of Yirendai's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Yirendai's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Yirendai's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Yirendai to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Is Yirendai's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Yirendai. If investors know Yirendai will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Yirendai listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.194
Earnings Share
3.12
Revenue Per Share
55.396
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.171
Return On Assets
0.1724
The market value of Yirendai is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Yirendai that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Yirendai's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Yirendai's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Yirendai's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Yirendai's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Yirendai's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Yirendai is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Yirendai's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.