Zedge Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ZDGE Stock | USD 2.43 0.12 5.19% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Zedge Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.12. Zedge Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Zedge stock prices and determine the direction of Zedge Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Zedge's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zedge to cross-verify your projections. Zedge |
Most investors in Zedge cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Zedge's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Zedge's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Zedge is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Zedge Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Zedge Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Zedge Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Zedge Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Zedge's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Zedge Stock Forecast Pattern
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Zedge Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Zedge's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Zedge's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 10.14, respectively. We have considered Zedge's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Zedge stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Zedge stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.437 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1823 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.054 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.1206 |
Predictive Modules for Zedge
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Zedge Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Zedge's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Zedge
For every potential investor in Zedge, whether a beginner or expert, Zedge's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Zedge Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Zedge. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Zedge's price trends.View Zedge Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Zedge Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Zedge's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Zedge's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Zedge Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Zedge stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Zedge shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Zedge stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Zedge Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Zedge Risk Indicators
The analysis of Zedge's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Zedge's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting zedge stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.95 | |||
| Variance | 63.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 81.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 63.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Zedge in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Zedge's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Zedge options trading.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Zedge Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Zedge's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Zedge's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Zedge Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zedge to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Zedge Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Zedge's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Zedge Stock analysis
When running Zedge's price analysis, check to measure Zedge's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Zedge is operating at the current time. Most of Zedge's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Zedge's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Zedge's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Zedge to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Zedge's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Zedge. If investors know Zedge will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Zedge listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Zedge Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Zedge that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Zedge's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Zedge's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Zedge's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Zedge's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Zedge's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Zedge is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Zedge's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.