Zealand Pharma Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ZEAL -  USA Stock  

USD 31.66  0.33  1.03%

Zealand Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Zealand Pharma historical stock prices and determine the direction of Zealand Pharma AS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Zealand Pharma historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zealand Pharma to cross-verify your projections.

Zealand Stock Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Zealand Pharma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Zealand Pharma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Zealand Pharma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Zealand Pharma is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Zealand Pharma AS value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Zealand Pharma Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Zealand Pharma AS on the next trading day is expected to be 35.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.28. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Zealand Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Zealand Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Zealand Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern

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Zealand Pharma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Zealand Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Zealand Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.13 and 38.52, respectively. We have considered Zealand Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
31.66
19th of October 2021
35.83
Expected Value
38.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Zealand Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Zealand Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2604
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9062
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.03
SAESum of the absolute errors55.2761
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Zealand Pharma AS. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Zealand Pharma. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Zealand Pharma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Zealand Pharma AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Zealand Pharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Zealand Pharma in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
29.3232.0234.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
23.1525.8535.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Zealand Pharma. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Zealand Pharma's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Zealand Pharma's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Zealand Pharma AS.

Other Forecasting Options for Zealand Pharma

For every potential investor in Zealand, whether a beginner or expert, Zealand Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Zealand Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Zealand. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Zealand Pharma's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Zealand Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Zealand Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Zealand Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Zealand Pharma AS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Zealand Pharma's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Zealand Pharma's current price.

Zealand Pharma Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Zealand Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Zealand Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Zealand Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Zealand Pharma AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Zealand Pharma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Zealand Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Zealand Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Zealand Pharma stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Zealand Pharma Investors Sentiment

The influence of Zealand Pharma's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Zealand. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - ZEAL

Zealand Pharma AS Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are at this time bullish on Zealand Pharma AS. What is your take regarding investing in Zealand Pharma AS? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity..
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zealand Pharma to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Zealand Pharma AS information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Zealand Pharma's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for Zealand Stock analysis

When running Zealand Pharma AS price analysis, check to measure Zealand Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Zealand Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of Zealand Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Zealand Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Zealand Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Zealand Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Zealand Pharma AS is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Zealand that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Zealand Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Zealand Pharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Zealand Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Zealand Pharma AS underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Zealand Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Zealand Pharma value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Zealand Pharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.