Olympic Steel Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ZEUS -  USA Stock  

USD 25.41  0.13  0.51%

Olympic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Olympic Steel historical stock prices and determine the direction of Olympic Steel's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Olympic Steel historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Olympic Steel naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Olympic Steel systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Olympic Steel fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Olympic Steel to cross-verify your projections.

Olympic Stock Forecast 

 
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Olympic Steel Receivables Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Olympic Steel reported last year Receivables Turnover of 8.63. As of 10/17/2021, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 4.26, while Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to drop 14.59. . As of 10/17/2021, Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 10.7 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 10.7 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-11-19 Olympic Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Olympic Steel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Olympic Steel's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Olympic Steel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Olympic Steel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Olympic Steel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Olympic Steel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Olympic. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Olympic Steel cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Olympic Steel's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Olympic Steel's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Olympic Steel is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Olympic Steel value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Olympic Steel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of October 2021

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Olympic Steel on the next trading day is expected to be 25.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.98. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Olympic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Olympic Steel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Olympic Steel Stock Forecast Pattern

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Olympic Steel Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Olympic Steel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Olympic Steel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.35 and 28.46, respectively. We have considered Olympic Steel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.41
17th of October 2021
25.40
Expected Value
28.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Olympic Steel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Olympic Steel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.6565
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.639
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0237
SAESum of the absolute errors38.9799
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Olympic Steel. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Olympic Steel. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Olympic Steel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Olympic Steel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Olympic Steel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Olympic Steel in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
22.3425.3928.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
22.1125.1628.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
23.9024.7426.43
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
8.598.728.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Olympic Steel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Olympic Steel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Olympic Steel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Olympic Steel.

Other Forecasting Options for Olympic Steel

For every potential investor in Olympic, whether a beginner or expert, Olympic Steel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Olympic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Olympic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Olympic Steel's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Olympic Steel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Olympic Steel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Olympic Steel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Olympic Steel Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Olympic Steel's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Olympic Steel's current price.

Olympic Steel Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Olympic Steel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Olympic Steel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Olympic Steel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Olympic Steel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Olympic Steel Risk Indicators

The analysis of Olympic Steel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Olympic Steel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Olympic Steel stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Olympic Steel without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Olympic Steel to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Olympic Steel information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Olympic Steel's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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The market value of Olympic Steel is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Olympic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Olympic Steel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Olympic Steel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Olympic Steel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Olympic Steel underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Olympic Steel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Olympic Steel value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Olympic Steel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.