Olympic Steel Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ZEUS Stock  USD 70.18  1.97  2.89%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Olympic Steel on the next trading day is expected to be 72.33 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.05  and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.29. Olympic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Olympic Steel stock prices and determine the direction of Olympic Steel's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Olympic Steel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Olympic Steel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Olympic Steel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Olympic Steel fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Olympic Steel to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Olympic Stock please use our How to Invest in Olympic Steel guide.
  
At this time, Olympic Steel's Payables Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 2.41 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 3.16 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 11.7 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 109.8 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Olympic Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Olympic Steel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Olympic Steel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Olympic Steel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Olympic Steel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Olympic Steel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Olympic Steel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Olympic. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Olympic Steel cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Olympic Steel's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Olympic Steel's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Olympic Steel is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Olympic Steel value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Olympic Steel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Olympic Steel on the next trading day is expected to be 72.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 1.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Olympic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Olympic Steel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Olympic Steel Stock Forecast Pattern

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Olympic Steel Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Olympic Steel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Olympic Steel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 70.09 and 74.57, respectively. We have considered Olympic Steel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
70.18
72.33
Expected Value
74.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Olympic Steel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Olympic Steel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.5218
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.053
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0158
SAESum of the absolute errors65.2877
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Olympic Steel. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Olympic Steel. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Olympic Steel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Olympic Steel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Olympic Steel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
67.8670.0872.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
59.0861.3077.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
67.3369.0270.70
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
49.1454.0059.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Olympic Steel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Olympic Steel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Olympic Steel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Olympic Steel.

Other Forecasting Options for Olympic Steel

For every potential investor in Olympic, whether a beginner or expert, Olympic Steel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Olympic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Olympic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Olympic Steel's price trends.

Olympic Steel Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Olympic Steel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Olympic Steel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Olympic Steel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Olympic Steel Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Olympic Steel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Olympic Steel's current price.

Olympic Steel Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Olympic Steel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Olympic Steel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Olympic Steel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Olympic Steel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Olympic Steel Risk Indicators

The analysis of Olympic Steel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Olympic Steel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting olympic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Olympic Steel in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Olympic Steel's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Olympic Steel options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Olympic Steel is a strong investment it is important to analyze Olympic Steel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Olympic Steel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Olympic Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Olympic Steel to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Olympic Stock please use our How to Invest in Olympic Steel guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

Complementary Tools for Olympic Stock analysis

When running Olympic Steel's price analysis, check to measure Olympic Steel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Olympic Steel is operating at the current time. Most of Olympic Steel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Olympic Steel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Olympic Steel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Olympic Steel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Olympic Steel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Olympic Steel. If investors know Olympic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Olympic Steel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.867
Dividend Share
0.5
Earnings Share
3.85
Revenue Per Share
186.483
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of Olympic Steel is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Olympic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Olympic Steel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Olympic Steel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Olympic Steel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Olympic Steel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Olympic Steel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Olympic Steel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Olympic Steel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.