KGI SECURITIES (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.09

089204 -  Taiwan Stock  

TWD 1.85  0.00  0.00%

KGI SECURITIES's future price is the expected price of KGI SECURITIES instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of KGI SECURITIES CW performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

089204 Price Probability 

 
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KGI SECURITIES Target Price Odds to finish below 2.09

The tendency of 089204 Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under NT$ 2.09  after 90 days
 1.85 90 days 2.09  over 95.65
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of KGI SECURITIES to stay under NT$ 2.09  after 90 days from now is over 95.65 (This KGI SECURITIES CW probability density function shows the probability of 089204 Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of KGI SECURITIES CW price to stay between its current price of NT$ 1.85  and NT$ 2.09  at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon KGI SECURITIES CW has a beta of -1.2. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding KGI SECURITIES CW are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, KGI SECURITIES is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.9513, implying that it can generate a 0.95 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 KGI SECURITIES Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for KGI SECURITIES

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KGI SECURITIES CW. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of KGI SECURITIES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of KGI SECURITIES in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.091.8514.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.071.4614.16
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.0452.2514.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1.541.892.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as KGI SECURITIES. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against KGI SECURITIES's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, KGI SECURITIES's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in KGI SECURITIES CW.

KGI SECURITIES Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. KGI SECURITIES is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the KGI SECURITIES's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KGI SECURITIES CW, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of KGI SECURITIES within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.95
β
Beta against DOW-1.2
σ
Overall volatility
0.28
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

KGI SECURITIES Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of KGI SECURITIES for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for KGI SECURITIES CW can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
KGI SECURITIES CW is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
KGI SECURITIES CW is way too risky over 90 days horizon
KGI SECURITIES CW may become a speculative penny stock
KGI SECURITIES CW appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues

KGI SECURITIES Technical Analysis

KGI SECURITIES's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 089204 Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KGI SECURITIES CW. In general, you should focus on analyzing 089204 Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

KGI SECURITIES Predictive Forecast Models

KGI SECURITIES time-series forecasting models is one of many KGI SECURITIES's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary KGI SECURITIES's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about KGI SECURITIES CW

Checking the ongoing alerts about KGI SECURITIES for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for KGI SECURITIES CW help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

KGI SECURITIES Alerts

KGI SECURITIES Alerts and Suggestions

KGI SECURITIES CW is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
KGI SECURITIES CW is way too risky over 90 days horizon
KGI SECURITIES CW may become a speculative penny stock
KGI SECURITIES CW appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Please continue to Trending Equities. Note that the KGI SECURITIES CW information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other KGI SECURITIES's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

Other Tools for 089204 Stock

When running KGI SECURITIES CW price analysis, check to measure KGI SECURITIES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KGI SECURITIES is operating at the current time. Most of KGI SECURITIES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KGI SECURITIES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KGI SECURITIES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KGI SECURITIES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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