Koge Micro (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 65.0
| 4568 Stock | TWD 53.40 0.40 0.75% |
Koge |
Koge Micro Target Price Odds to finish below 65.0
The tendency of Koge Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under NT$ 65.00 after 90 days |
| 53.40 | 90 days | 65.00 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Koge Micro to stay under NT$ 65.00 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Koge Micro Tech probability density function shows the probability of Koge Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Koge Micro Tech price to stay between its current price of NT$ 53.40 and NT$ 65.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 99.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Koge Micro has a beta of 0.41. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Koge Micro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Koge Micro Tech will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Koge Micro Tech has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Koge Micro Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Koge Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Koge Micro Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Koge Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Koge Micro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Koge Micro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Koge Micro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Koge Micro Tech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Koge Micro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Koge Micro Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Koge Micro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Koge Micro Tech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Koge Micro Tech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Koge Micro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Koge Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Koge Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Koge Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30 M |
Koge Micro Technical Analysis
Koge Micro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Koge Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Koge Micro Tech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Koge Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Koge Micro Predictive Forecast Models
Koge Micro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Koge Micro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Koge Micro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Koge Micro Tech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Koge Micro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Koge Micro Tech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Koge Micro Tech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Check out Koge Micro Backtesting, Koge Micro Valuation, Koge Micro Correlation, Koge Micro Hype Analysis, Koge Micro Volatility, Koge Micro History as well as Koge Micro Performance. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for Koge Stock analysis
When running Koge Micro's price analysis, check to measure Koge Micro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Koge Micro is operating at the current time. Most of Koge Micro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Koge Micro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Koge Micro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Koge Micro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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