AvalonBay Communities (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 296.8
| A1VB34 Stock | BRL 248.16 5.07 2.09% |
AvalonBay |
AvalonBay Communities Target Price Odds to finish over 296.8
The tendency of AvalonBay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 296.80 or more in 90 days |
| 248.16 | 90 days | 296.80 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AvalonBay Communities to move over R$ 296.80 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AvalonBay Communities probability density function shows the probability of AvalonBay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AvalonBay Communities price to stay between its current price of R$ 248.16 and R$ 296.80 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AvalonBay Communities has a beta of 0.27. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AvalonBay Communities average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AvalonBay Communities will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AvalonBay Communities has an alpha of 0.1428, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AvalonBay Communities Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AvalonBay Communities
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AvalonBay Communities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AvalonBay Communities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AvalonBay Communities Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AvalonBay Communities is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AvalonBay Communities' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AvalonBay Communities, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AvalonBay Communities within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
AvalonBay Communities Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AvalonBay Communities for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AvalonBay Communities can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has accumulated 8.1 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.69, which is about average as compared to similar companies. AvalonBay Communities has a current ratio of 0.67, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist AvalonBay Communities until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AvalonBay Communities' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AvalonBay Communities sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AvalonBay to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AvalonBay Communities' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
AvalonBay Communities Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AvalonBay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AvalonBay Communities' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AvalonBay Communities' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 139.8 M |
AvalonBay Communities Technical Analysis
AvalonBay Communities' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AvalonBay Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AvalonBay Communities. In general, you should focus on analyzing AvalonBay Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AvalonBay Communities Predictive Forecast Models
AvalonBay Communities' time-series forecasting models is one of many AvalonBay Communities' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AvalonBay Communities' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AvalonBay Communities
Checking the ongoing alerts about AvalonBay Communities for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AvalonBay Communities help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has accumulated 8.1 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.69, which is about average as compared to similar companies. AvalonBay Communities has a current ratio of 0.67, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist AvalonBay Communities until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AvalonBay Communities' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AvalonBay Communities sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AvalonBay to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AvalonBay Communities' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Check out AvalonBay Communities Backtesting, AvalonBay Communities Valuation, AvalonBay Communities Correlation, AvalonBay Communities Hype Analysis, AvalonBay Communities Volatility, AvalonBay Communities History as well as AvalonBay Communities Performance. For information on how to trade AvalonBay Stock refer to our How to Trade AvalonBay Stock guide.Note that the AvalonBay Communities information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AvalonBay Communities' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Complementary Tools for AvalonBay Stock analysis
When running AvalonBay Communities' price analysis, check to measure AvalonBay Communities' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AvalonBay Communities is operating at the current time. Most of AvalonBay Communities' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AvalonBay Communities' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AvalonBay Communities' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AvalonBay Communities to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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