Asbury Automotive Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 222.19
| ABG Stock | USD 222.19 5.33 2.46% |
Closest to current price Asbury long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Asbury |
Asbury Automotive Target Price Odds to finish over 222.19
The tendency of Asbury Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 222.19 | 90 days | 222.19 | about 17.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Asbury Automotive to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 17.94 (This Asbury Automotive Group probability density function shows the probability of Asbury Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.97 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Asbury Automotive will likely underperform. Additionally Asbury Automotive Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Asbury Automotive Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Asbury Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asbury Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Asbury Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Asbury Automotive Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Asbury Automotive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Asbury Automotive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Asbury Automotive Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Asbury Automotive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.97 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Asbury Automotive Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Asbury Automotive for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Asbury Automotive can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Asbury Automotive Announces Chief Legal Officer George Villasana to Retire |
Asbury Automotive Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Asbury Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Asbury Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Asbury Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 45.7 M |
Asbury Automotive Technical Analysis
Asbury Automotive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Asbury Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Asbury Automotive Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Asbury Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Asbury Automotive Predictive Forecast Models
Asbury Automotive's time-series forecasting models is one of many Asbury Automotive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Asbury Automotive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Asbury Automotive
Checking the ongoing alerts about Asbury Automotive for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Asbury Automotive help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Asbury Automotive Announces Chief Legal Officer George Villasana to Retire |
Check out Asbury Automotive Backtesting, Asbury Automotive Valuation, Asbury Automotive Correlation, Asbury Automotive Hype Analysis, Asbury Automotive Volatility, Asbury Automotive History as well as Asbury Automotive Performance. Note that the Asbury Automotive information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Asbury Automotive's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Asbury Stock analysis
When running Asbury Automotive's price analysis, check to measure Asbury Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Asbury Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of Asbury Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Asbury Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Asbury Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Asbury Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Asbury Automotive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Asbury Automotive. If investors know Asbury will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Asbury Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.83) | Earnings Share 28.73 | Revenue Per Share 708.263 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.029 | Return On Assets 0.0739 |
The market value of Asbury Automotive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Asbury that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Asbury Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Asbury Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Asbury Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Asbury Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Asbury Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Asbury Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Asbury Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.