California Municipal Portfolio Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 14.41
| ACMCX Fund | USD 13.75 0.01 0.07% |
California |
California Municipal Target Price Odds to finish over 14.41
The tendency of California Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 14.41 or more in 90 days |
| 13.75 | 90 days | 14.41 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of California Municipal to move over $ 14.41 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This California Municipal Portfolio probability density function shows the probability of California Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of California Municipal price to stay between its current price of $ 13.75 and $ 14.41 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.92 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon California Municipal Portfolio has a beta of -0.004. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding California Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, California Municipal Portfolio is likely to outperform the market. Additionally California Municipal Portfolio has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. California Municipal Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for California Municipal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as California Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of California Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
California Municipal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. California Municipal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the California Municipal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold California Municipal Portfolio, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of California Municipal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.004 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.67 |
California Municipal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of California Municipal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for California Municipal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| California Municipal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| California Municipal holds about 5.79% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
California Municipal Technical Analysis
California Municipal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. California Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of California Municipal Portfolio. In general, you should focus on analyzing California Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
California Municipal Predictive Forecast Models
California Municipal's time-series forecasting models is one of many California Municipal's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary California Municipal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about California Municipal
Checking the ongoing alerts about California Municipal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for California Municipal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| California Municipal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| California Municipal holds about 5.79% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Check out California Municipal Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, California Municipal Correlation, California Municipal Hype Analysis, California Municipal Volatility, California Municipal History as well as California Municipal Performance. Note that the California Municipal information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other California Municipal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.