ADTRAN Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.78

ADTN Stock

USD 15.78 0.13 0.83%

ADTRAN's future price is the expected price of ADTRAN instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ADTRAN Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. ADTRAN Price to Book Value is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. ADTRAN reported last year Price to Book Value of 1.47. As of 24th of March 2023, Price to Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 1.26, while Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (642.82) .

ADTRAN's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on ADTRAN Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of ADTRAN based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in ADTRAN Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2023-04-21 CALL at $16.0 is a CALL option contract on ADTRAN's common stock with a strick price of 16.0 expiring on 2023-04-21. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 28 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.5, and an ask price of $0.75. The implied volatility as of the 24th of March is 44.5061. View All ADTRAN options

Closest to current price ADTRAN long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Check out ADTRAN Backtesting, ADTRAN Valuation, ADTRAN Correlation, ADTRAN Hype Analysis, ADTRAN Volatility, ADTRAN History as well as ADTRAN Performance. To learn how to invest in ADTRAN Stock please use our How to Invest in ADTRAN guide.Please specify ADTRAN time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like ADTRAN odds to be computed.

ADTRAN Target Price Odds to finish over 15.78

The tendency of ADTRAN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.

Current Price	Horizon	Target Price	Odds to move above the current price in 90 days
15.78	90 days	15.78	about 92.58

Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ADTRAN to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 92.58 (This ADTRAN Inc probability density function shows the probability of ADTRAN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .

Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.45 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ADTRAN will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. ADTRAN Inc is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.

ADTRAN Price Density

Price

Predictive Modules for ADTRAN

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ADTRAN Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ADTRAN's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ADTRAN in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
13.26	15.73	18.20

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
14.09	18.55	21.02

Details

7 Analysts

Consensus

Low	Target Price	High
22.00	26.43	31.00

Details

Earnings

Estimates (2)

Low	Projected EPS	High
0.11	0.13	0.15

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ADTRAN. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ADTRAN's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ADTRAN's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ADTRAN Inc.

ADTRAN Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ADTRAN is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ADTRAN's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ADTRAN Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ADTRAN within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.

α	Alpha over NYSE Composite	-0.21	Details
β	Beta against NYSE Composite	1.45	Details
σ	Overall volatility	1.28	Details
Ir	Information ratio	-0.09	Details

ADTRAN Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ADTRAN for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ADTRAN Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

	ADTRAN Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
	ADTRAN Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
	The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.03 B. Net Loss for the year was (8.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 327.26 M.
	ADTRAN Inc currently holds about 111.9 M in cash with (43.55 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.53.
	ADTRAN Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
	Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
	On 21st of March 2023 ADTRAN paid $ 0.09 per share dividend to its current shareholders
	Latest headline from businesswire.com: Truespeed accelerates fiber network expansion with Adtran

ADTRAN Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ADTRAN Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ADTRAN's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ADTRAN's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	48.3 M
	Cash And Short Term Investments	109 M

ADTRAN Technical Analysis

ADTRAN's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ADTRAN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ADTRAN Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing ADTRAN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

ADTRAN Predictive Forecast Models

ADTRAN time-series forecasting models is one of many ADTRAN's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary ADTRAN's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about ADTRAN Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about ADTRAN for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ADTRAN Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

	ADTRAN Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
	ADTRAN Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
	The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.03 B. Net Loss for the year was (8.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 327.26 M.
	ADTRAN Inc currently holds about 111.9 M in cash with (43.55 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.53.
	ADTRAN Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
	Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
	On 21st of March 2023 ADTRAN paid $ 0.09 per share dividend to its current shareholders
	Latest headline from businesswire.com: Truespeed accelerates fiber network expansion with Adtran

Check out ADTRAN Backtesting, ADTRAN Valuation, ADTRAN Correlation, ADTRAN Hype Analysis, ADTRAN Volatility, ADTRAN History as well as ADTRAN Performance. To learn how to invest in ADTRAN Stock please use our How to Invest in ADTRAN guide. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running ADTRAN Inc price analysis, check to measure ADTRAN's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADTRAN is operating at the current time. Most of ADTRAN's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADTRAN's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADTRAN's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADTRAN to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is ADTRAN's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADTRAN. If investors know ADTRAN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ADTRAN listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

(0.60)

Dividend Share

0.36

Earnings Share

(0.03)

Revenue Per Share

16.449

Quarterly Revenue Growth

1.324

The market value of ADTRAN Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADTRAN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADTRAN's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADTRAN's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ADTRAN's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADTRAN's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between ADTRAN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ADTRAN value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ADTRAN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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ADTRAN Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.78

Closest to current price ADTRAN long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

ADTRAN Target Price Odds to finish over 15.78

Predictive Modules for ADTRAN

ADTRAN Risk Indicators

ADTRAN Alerts and Suggestions

ADTRAN Price Density Drivers

ADTRAN Technical Analysis

ADTRAN Predictive Forecast Models

Things to note about ADTRAN Inc

Complementary Tools for analysis

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