Addus Homecare Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 97.98

ADUS Stock  USD 103.74  1.18  1.15%   
Addus HomeCare's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Addus HomeCare. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Addus HomeCare based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Addus HomeCare over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $105.0 is a CALL option contract on Addus HomeCare's common stock with a strick price of 105.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-15 at 14:34:22 for $2.87 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.1, and an ask price of $6.0. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 43.56. View All Addus options

Closest to current price Addus long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Addus HomeCare's future price is the expected price of Addus HomeCare instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Addus HomeCare performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Addus HomeCare Backtesting, Addus HomeCare Valuation, Addus HomeCare Correlation, Addus HomeCare Hype Analysis, Addus HomeCare Volatility, Addus HomeCare History as well as Addus HomeCare Performance.
For more information on how to buy Addus Stock please use our How to Invest in Addus HomeCare guide.
  
At this time, Addus HomeCare's Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to gain to 13.89 in 2024, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 0.77 in 2024. Please specify Addus HomeCare's target price for which you would like Addus HomeCare odds to be computed.

Addus HomeCare Target Price Odds to finish over 97.98

The tendency of Addus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 97.98  in 90 days
 103.74 90 days 97.98 
about 17.87
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Addus HomeCare to stay above $ 97.98  in 90 days from now is about 17.87 (This Addus HomeCare probability density function shows the probability of Addus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Addus HomeCare price to stay between $ 97.98  and its current price of $103.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.08 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.16 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Addus HomeCare will likely underperform. Additionally Addus HomeCare has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Addus HomeCare Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Addus HomeCare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Addus HomeCare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Addus HomeCare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
102.15104.12106.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
102.93104.90106.87
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
100.83102.79104.76
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
103.13113.33125.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Addus HomeCare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Addus HomeCare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Addus HomeCare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Addus HomeCare.

Addus HomeCare Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Addus HomeCare is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Addus HomeCare's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Addus HomeCare, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Addus HomeCare within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.16
σ
Overall volatility
4.89
Ir
Information ratio -0.0028

Addus HomeCare Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Addus HomeCare for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Addus HomeCare can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Addus HomeCare has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from zacks.com: Is Masimo Stock Outpacing Its Medical Peers This Year

Addus HomeCare Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Addus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Addus HomeCare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Addus HomeCare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding16.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments64.8 M

Addus HomeCare Technical Analysis

Addus HomeCare's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Addus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Addus HomeCare. In general, you should focus on analyzing Addus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Addus HomeCare Predictive Forecast Models

Addus HomeCare's time-series forecasting models is one of many Addus HomeCare's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Addus HomeCare's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Addus HomeCare

Checking the ongoing alerts about Addus HomeCare for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Addus HomeCare help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Addus HomeCare has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from zacks.com: Is Masimo Stock Outpacing Its Medical Peers This Year
When determining whether Addus HomeCare is a strong investment it is important to analyze Addus HomeCare's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Addus HomeCare's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Addus Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Addus Stock analysis

When running Addus HomeCare's price analysis, check to measure Addus HomeCare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Addus HomeCare is operating at the current time. Most of Addus HomeCare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Addus HomeCare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Addus HomeCare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Addus HomeCare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Portfolio Dashboard
Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments
Sign In To Macroaxis
Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules
Bonds Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
AI Investment Finder
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
AI Portfolio Architect
Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities
Is Addus HomeCare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Addus HomeCare. If investors know Addus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Addus HomeCare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.334
Earnings Share
3.83
Revenue Per Share
66.182
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.119
Return On Assets
0.0618
The market value of Addus HomeCare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Addus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Addus HomeCare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Addus HomeCare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Addus HomeCare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Addus HomeCare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Addus HomeCare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Addus HomeCare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Addus HomeCare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.