American Eagle Outfitters Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.35
| AEO Stock | USD 22.37 0.07 0.31% |
Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
American |
American Eagle Target Price Odds to finish below 15.35
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.35 or more in 90 days |
| 22.37 | 90 days | 15.35 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Eagle to drop to $ 15.35 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This American Eagle Outfitters probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Eagle Outfitters price to stay between $ 15.35 and its current price of $22.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.72 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.54 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, American Eagle will likely underperform. Additionally American Eagle Outfitters has an alpha of 0.0024, implying that it can generate a 0.002401 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American Eagle Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Eagle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Eagle Outfitters. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Eagle Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Eagle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Eagle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Eagle Outfitters, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Eagle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
American Eagle Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Eagle for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Eagle Outfitters can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American Eagle is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Steven Madden Rides on Strategic Growth, Market Success |
American Eagle Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Eagle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Eagle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 196.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 454.1 M |
American Eagle Technical Analysis
American Eagle's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Eagle Outfitters. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Eagle Predictive Forecast Models
American Eagle's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Eagle's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Eagle's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Eagle Outfitters
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Eagle for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Eagle Outfitters help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American Eagle is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Steven Madden Rides on Strategic Growth, Market Success |
Check out American Eagle Backtesting, American Eagle Valuation, American Eagle Correlation, American Eagle Hype Analysis, American Eagle Volatility, American Eagle History as well as American Eagle Performance. Note that the American Eagle Outfitters information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Eagle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Eagle's price analysis, check to measure American Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of American Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Eagle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Eagle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Eagle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Dividend Share 0.425 | Earnings Share 0.86 | Revenue Per Share 26.894 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.122 |
The market value of American Eagle Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Eagle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Eagle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Eagle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Eagle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Eagle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.