Agilysys Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 77.56

AGYS Stock  USD 83.55  1.10  1.33%   
Agilysys' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Agilysys. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Agilysys based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Agilysys over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $85.0 is a CALL option contract on Agilysys' common stock with a strick price of 85.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-20 at 14:54:35 for $1.2 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.05, and an ask price of $5.0. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 49.7. View All Agilysys options

Closest to current price Agilysys long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Agilysys' future price is the expected price of Agilysys instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Agilysys performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Agilysys Backtesting, Agilysys Valuation, Agilysys Correlation, Agilysys Hype Analysis, Agilysys Volatility, Agilysys History as well as Agilysys Performance.
For more information on how to buy Agilysys Stock please use our How to Invest in Agilysys guide.
  
Price Earnings Ratio is likely to gain to 168.72 in 2024. Price To Sales Ratio is likely to gain to 9.72 in 2024. Please specify Agilysys' target price for which you would like Agilysys odds to be computed.

Agilysys Target Price Odds to finish below 77.56

The tendency of Agilysys Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 77.56  or more in 90 days
 83.55 90 days 77.56 
about 20.55
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agilysys to drop to $ 77.56  or more in 90 days from now is about 20.55 (This Agilysys probability density function shows the probability of Agilysys Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agilysys price to stay between $ 77.56  and its current price of $83.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.25 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.77 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Agilysys will likely underperform. Additionally Agilysys has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Agilysys Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Agilysys

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agilysys. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agilysys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
79.9982.4484.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
74.2186.0688.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
79.4681.9184.36
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
81.3589.4099.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Agilysys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Agilysys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Agilysys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Agilysys.

Agilysys Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agilysys is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agilysys' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agilysys, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agilysys within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.25
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.77
σ
Overall volatility
4.47
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Agilysys Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agilysys for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agilysys can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Agilysys generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Agilysys is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Agilysys has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Deutsche Bank AG Acquires 16,180 Shares of Agilysys, Inc. - MarketBeat

Agilysys Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agilysys Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agilysys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agilysys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding25.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments112.8 M

Agilysys Technical Analysis

Agilysys' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agilysys Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agilysys. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agilysys Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Agilysys Predictive Forecast Models

Agilysys' time-series forecasting models is one of many Agilysys' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agilysys' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Agilysys

Checking the ongoing alerts about Agilysys for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agilysys help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Agilysys generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Agilysys is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Agilysys has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Deutsche Bank AG Acquires 16,180 Shares of Agilysys, Inc. - MarketBeat
When determining whether Agilysys is a strong investment it is important to analyze Agilysys' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Agilysys' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Agilysys Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Agilysys Backtesting, Agilysys Valuation, Agilysys Correlation, Agilysys Hype Analysis, Agilysys Volatility, Agilysys History as well as Agilysys Performance.
For more information on how to buy Agilysys Stock please use our How to Invest in Agilysys guide.
You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for Agilysys Stock analysis

When running Agilysys' price analysis, check to measure Agilysys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agilysys is operating at the current time. Most of Agilysys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agilysys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agilysys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agilysys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Agilysys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agilysys. If investors know Agilysys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agilysys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
20.923
Earnings Share
3.24
Revenue Per Share
9.072
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.213
Return On Assets
0.0334
The market value of Agilysys is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agilysys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agilysys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agilysys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agilysys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agilysys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agilysys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agilysys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agilysys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.