Astronova Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.65

ALOT Stock  USD 17.88  0.03  0.17%   
AstroNova's future price is the expected price of AstroNova instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of AstroNova performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out AstroNova Backtesting, AstroNova Valuation, AstroNova Correlation, AstroNova Hype Analysis, AstroNova Volatility, AstroNova History as well as AstroNova Performance.
For more information on how to buy AstroNova Stock please use our How to Invest in AstroNova guide.
  
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AstroNova Target Price Odds to finish over 11.65

The tendency of AstroNova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 11.65  in 90 days
 17.88 90 days 11.65 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AstroNova to stay above $ 11.65  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This AstroNova probability density function shows the probability of AstroNova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AstroNova price to stay between $ 11.65  and its current price of $17.88 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.2 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days AstroNova has a beta of 0.54. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AstroNova average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AstroNova will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AstroNova has an alpha of 0.1033, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   AstroNova Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AstroNova

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AstroNova. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AstroNova's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.5217.9019.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.0917.4718.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
16.8618.2419.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.8417.8717.90
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AstroNova. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AstroNova's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AstroNova's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AstroNova.

AstroNova Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AstroNova is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AstroNova's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AstroNova, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AstroNova within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.10
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.54
σ
Overall volatility
0.55
Ir
Information ratio 0.04

AstroNova Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AstroNova for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AstroNova can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AstroNova currently holds about 4.29 M in cash with (2.94 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.58.
Roughly 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from gurufocus.com: AstroNova Inc Posts Record Operating Income in Fiscal 2024

AstroNova Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AstroNova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AstroNova's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AstroNova's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding7.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.5 M

AstroNova Technical Analysis

AstroNova's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AstroNova Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AstroNova. In general, you should focus on analyzing AstroNova Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

AstroNova Predictive Forecast Models

AstroNova's time-series forecasting models is one of many AstroNova's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AstroNova's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about AstroNova

Checking the ongoing alerts about AstroNova for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AstroNova help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AstroNova currently holds about 4.29 M in cash with (2.94 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.58.
Roughly 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from gurufocus.com: AstroNova Inc Posts Record Operating Income in Fiscal 2024
When determining whether AstroNova is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if AstroNova Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Astronova Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Astronova Stock:
Check out AstroNova Backtesting, AstroNova Valuation, AstroNova Correlation, AstroNova Hype Analysis, AstroNova Volatility, AstroNova History as well as AstroNova Performance.
For more information on how to buy AstroNova Stock please use our How to Invest in AstroNova guide.
You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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When running AstroNova's price analysis, check to measure AstroNova's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AstroNova is operating at the current time. Most of AstroNova's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AstroNova's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AstroNova's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AstroNova to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AstroNova's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AstroNova. If investors know AstroNova will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AstroNova listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of AstroNova is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AstroNova that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AstroNova's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AstroNova's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AstroNova's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AstroNova's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AstroNova's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AstroNova is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AstroNova's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.