Income Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 24.97

AMEFX -  USA Fund  

USD 25.84  0.44  1.73%

Income Fund's future price is the expected price of Income Fund instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of The Income Fund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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Please continue to Income Fund Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Income Fund Correlation, Income Fund Hype Analysis, Income Fund Volatility, Income Fund History as well as Income Fund Performance. Please specify Income Fund time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Income Fund odds to be computed.
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Income Fund Target Price Odds to finish over 24.97

The tendency of Income Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 24.97  in 90 days
 25.84 90 days 24.97  close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Income Fund to stay above $ 24.97  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This The Income Fund probability density function shows the probability of Income Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Income Fund price to stay between $ 24.97  and its current price of $25.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.39 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Income Fund has a beta of 0.0225. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Income Fund average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding The Income Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Income Fund is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Income Fund Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Income Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Income Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Income Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Income Fund in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
25.3825.8426.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
25.3925.8526.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Income Fund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Income Fund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Income Fund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Income Fund.

Income Fund Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Income Fund is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Income Fund's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The Income Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Income Fund within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.03
β
Beta against DOW0.0225
σ
Overall volatility
0.21
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Income Fund Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Income Fund for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Income Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Income Fund is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.dividendinvestor.com: Dividend Announcement per share - Dividend Investor
The fund holds about 20.12% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

Income Fund Technical Analysis

Income Fund's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Income Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The Income Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Income Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Income Fund Predictive Forecast Models

Income Fund time-series forecasting models is one of many Income Fund's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Income Fund's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Income Fund

Checking the ongoing alerts about Income Fund for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Income Fund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Income Fund Alerts

Income Fund Alerts and Suggestions

Income Fund is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.dividendinvestor.com: Dividend Announcement per share - Dividend Investor
The fund holds about 20.12% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
Please continue to Income Fund Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Income Fund Correlation, Income Fund Hype Analysis, Income Fund Volatility, Income Fund History as well as Income Fund Performance. Note that the Income Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Income Fund's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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When running Income Fund price analysis, check to measure Income Fund's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Income Fund is operating at the current time. Most of Income Fund's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Income Fund's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Income Fund's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Income Fund to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Income Fund's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Income Fund value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Income Fund's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.