American Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 50.00

AMFCX -  USA Fund  

USD 50.00  0.10  0.20%

American Mutual's future price is the expected price of American Mutual instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Mutual performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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Please continue to American Mutual Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Mutual Correlation, American Mutual Hype Analysis, American Mutual Volatility, American Mutual History as well as American Mutual Performance. Please specify American Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Mutual odds to be computed.
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American Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over 50.00

The tendency of American Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 50.00 90 days 50.00  about 10.12
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Mutual to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 10.12 (This American Mutual probability density function shows the probability of American Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Mutual has a beta of -0.0327. This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding American Mutual are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, American Mutual is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0367, implying that it can generate a 0.0367 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 American Mutual Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for American Mutual

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Mutual. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Mutual's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Mutual in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
49.8749.8749.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
48.7749.5750.36
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Mutual. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Mutual's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Mutual's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Mutual.

American Mutual Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Mutual is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Mutual's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Mutual, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Mutual within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.036663
β
Beta against DOW-0.03
σ
Overall volatility
0.40
Ir
Information ratio 0.009513

American Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Mutual for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Mutual can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Mutual is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
On 16th of June 2021 American Mutual paid $ 0.112 per share dividend to its current shareholders
The fund holds about 6.19% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

American Mutual Technical Analysis

American Mutual's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Mutual. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Mutual Predictive Forecast Models

American Mutual time-series forecasting models is one of many American Mutual's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary American Mutual's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Mutual

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Mutual for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Mutual help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

American Mutual Alerts

American Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

American Mutual is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
On 16th of June 2021 American Mutual paid $ 0.112 per share dividend to its current shareholders
The fund holds about 6.19% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
Please continue to American Mutual Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Mutual Correlation, American Mutual Hype Analysis, American Mutual Volatility, American Mutual History as well as American Mutual Performance. Note that the American Mutual information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Mutual's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Mutual price analysis, check to measure American Mutual's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Mutual is operating at the current time. Most of American Mutual's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Mutual's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Mutual's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Mutual to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Mutual's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Mutual value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Mutual's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.