Amgen Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 243.96

AMGN Stock  USD 286.30  4.53  1.61%   
Amgen's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Amgen Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Amgen based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Amgen Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $287.5 is a CALL option contract on Amgen's common stock with a strick price of 287.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:42:32 for $0.88 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.78, and an ask price of $0.85. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 22.25. View All Amgen options

Closest to current price Amgen long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Amgen's future price is the expected price of Amgen instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Amgen Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Amgen Backtesting, Amgen Valuation, Amgen Correlation, Amgen Hype Analysis, Amgen Volatility, Amgen History as well as Amgen Performance.
  
At this time, Amgen's Price Fair Value is very stable compared to the past year. Please specify Amgen's target price for which you would like Amgen odds to be computed.

Amgen Target Price Odds to finish over 243.96

The tendency of Amgen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 243.96  in 90 days
 286.30 90 days 243.96 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amgen to stay above $ 243.96  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Amgen Inc probability density function shows the probability of Amgen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Amgen Inc price to stay between $ 243.96  and its current price of $286.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.81 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Amgen has a beta of 0.72. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Amgen average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Amgen Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Amgen Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Amgen Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Amgen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amgen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amgen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
284.88286.33287.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
273.39274.84314.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
282.72284.17285.62
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
235.51258.80287.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amgen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amgen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amgen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Amgen Inc.

Amgen Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amgen is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amgen's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amgen Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amgen within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.04
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.72
σ
Overall volatility
14.35
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Amgen Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amgen for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amgen Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Amgen Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 7th of March 2024 Amgen paid $ 2.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from investorplace.com: Disposition of 2508 shares by Matthew Busch of Amgen at 235.97 subject to Rule 16b-3

Amgen Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Amgen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Amgen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amgen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding538 M
Cash And Short Term Investments10.9 B

Amgen Technical Analysis

Amgen's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amgen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amgen Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amgen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Amgen Predictive Forecast Models

Amgen's time-series forecasting models is one of many Amgen's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amgen's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Amgen Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Amgen for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amgen Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Amgen Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 7th of March 2024 Amgen paid $ 2.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from investorplace.com: Disposition of 2508 shares by Matthew Busch of Amgen at 235.97 subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Amgen Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amgen's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amgen Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amgen Inc Stock:
Check out Amgen Backtesting, Amgen Valuation, Amgen Correlation, Amgen Hype Analysis, Amgen Volatility, Amgen History as well as Amgen Performance.
Note that the Amgen Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amgen's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for Amgen Stock analysis

When running Amgen's price analysis, check to measure Amgen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amgen is operating at the current time. Most of Amgen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amgen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amgen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amgen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amgen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amgen. If investors know Amgen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amgen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.52)
Dividend Share
8.52
Earnings Share
12.48
Revenue Per Share
52.692
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.198
The market value of Amgen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amgen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amgen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amgen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amgen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amgen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amgen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amgen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amgen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.