Alpha Metallurgical Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.0
| AMR Stock | USD 321.71 11.29 3.39% |
Closest to current price Alpha long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Alpha |
Alpha Metallurgical Target Price Odds to finish over 15.0
The tendency of Alpha Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 15.00 in 90 days |
| 321.71 | 90 days | 15.00 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alpha Metallurgical to stay above $ 15.00 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Alpha Metallurgical Resources probability density function shows the probability of Alpha Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alpha Metallurgical price to stay between $ 15.00 and its current price of $321.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.99 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.08 . This suggests Alpha Metallurgical Resources market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Alpha Metallurgical is expected to follow. Additionally Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Alpha Metallurgical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alpha Metallurgical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alpha Metallurgical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alpha Metallurgical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alpha Metallurgical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alpha Metallurgical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alpha Metallurgical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alpha Metallurgical Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alpha Metallurgical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 36.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Alpha Metallurgical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alpha Metallurgical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alpha Metallurgical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alpha Metallurgical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alpha Metallurgical has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Alpha Metallurgical is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Alpha Metallurgical has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: La solucin AMR inteligente de Guozi impulsa la innovadora sper fbrica de automviles de Xiaomi |
Alpha Metallurgical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alpha Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alpha Metallurgical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alpha Metallurgical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 268.2 M |
Alpha Metallurgical Technical Analysis
Alpha Metallurgical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alpha Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alpha Metallurgical Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alpha Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alpha Metallurgical Predictive Forecast Models
Alpha Metallurgical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alpha Metallurgical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alpha Metallurgical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alpha Metallurgical
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alpha Metallurgical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alpha Metallurgical help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alpha Metallurgical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alpha Metallurgical has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Alpha Metallurgical is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Alpha Metallurgical has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: La solucin AMR inteligente de Guozi impulsa la innovadora sper fbrica de automviles de Xiaomi |
Check out Alpha Metallurgical Backtesting, Alpha Metallurgical Valuation, Alpha Metallurgical Correlation, Alpha Metallurgical Hype Analysis, Alpha Metallurgical Volatility, Alpha Metallurgical History as well as Alpha Metallurgical Performance. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Alpha Stock analysis
When running Alpha Metallurgical's price analysis, check to measure Alpha Metallurgical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alpha Metallurgical is operating at the current time. Most of Alpha Metallurgical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alpha Metallurgical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alpha Metallurgical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alpha Metallurgical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alpha Metallurgical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alpha Metallurgical. If investors know Alpha will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alpha Metallurgical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 1.94 | Earnings Share 49.28 | Revenue Per Share 246.087 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.166 |
The market value of Alpha Metallurgical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alpha that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alpha Metallurgical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alpha Metallurgical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alpha Metallurgical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alpha Metallurgical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alpha Metallurgical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alpha Metallurgical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alpha Metallurgical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.