Amerisafe Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 46.87
| AMSF Stock | USD 42.32 0.19 0.45% |
Closest to current price AMERISAFE long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
AMERISAFE |
AMERISAFE Target Price Odds to finish over 46.87
The tendency of AMERISAFE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 46.87 or more in 90 days |
| 42.32 | 90 days | 46.87 | about 54.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AMERISAFE to move over $ 46.87 or more in 90 days from now is about 54.94 (This AMERISAFE probability density function shows the probability of AMERISAFE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AMERISAFE price to stay between its current price of $ 42.32 and $ 46.87 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.73 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days AMERISAFE has a beta of 0.41. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AMERISAFE average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AMERISAFE will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AMERISAFE has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. AMERISAFE Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AMERISAFE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMERISAFE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMERISAFE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMERISAFE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AMERISAFE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AMERISAFE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMERISAFE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AMERISAFE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
AMERISAFE Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AMERISAFE for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AMERISAFE can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AMERISAFE generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: AMERISAFE Hits New 1-Year Low at 42.73 - MarketBeat |
AMERISAFE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AMERISAFE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AMERISAFE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMERISAFE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 355.7 M |
AMERISAFE Technical Analysis
AMERISAFE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AMERISAFE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMERISAFE. In general, you should focus on analyzing AMERISAFE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AMERISAFE Predictive Forecast Models
AMERISAFE's time-series forecasting models is one of many AMERISAFE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AMERISAFE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AMERISAFE
Checking the ongoing alerts about AMERISAFE for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AMERISAFE help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AMERISAFE generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: AMERISAFE Hits New 1-Year Low at 42.73 - MarketBeat |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in AMERISAFE Stock
When determining whether AMERISAFE is a strong investment it is important to analyze AMERISAFE's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AMERISAFE's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AMERISAFE Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out AMERISAFE Backtesting, AMERISAFE Valuation, AMERISAFE Correlation, AMERISAFE Hype Analysis, AMERISAFE Volatility, AMERISAFE History as well as AMERISAFE Performance. For more detail on how to invest in AMERISAFE Stock please use our How to Invest in AMERISAFE guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMERISAFE. If investors know AMERISAFE will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AMERISAFE listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | Dividend Share 1.39 | Earnings Share 3.21 | Revenue Per Share 16.136 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.026 |
The market value of AMERISAFE is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMERISAFE that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AMERISAFE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AMERISAFE's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AMERISAFE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AMERISAFE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AMERISAFE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AMERISAFE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AMERISAFE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.