American Software Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 25.83
| AMSWA Stock | USD 10.13 0.07 0.70% |
Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
American |
American Software Target Price Odds to finish over 25.83
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 25.83 or more in 90 days |
| 10.13 | 90 days | 25.83 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Software to move over $ 25.83 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This American Software probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Software price to stay between its current price of $ 10.13 and $ 25.83 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.29 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, American Software will likely underperform. Additionally American Software has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. American Software Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Software Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Software is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Software's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Software, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Software within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
American Software Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Software for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Software can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American Software generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: American Software goes ex dividend tomorrow |
American Software Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 115.1 M |
American Software Technical Analysis
American Software's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Software. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Software Predictive Forecast Models
American Software's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Software's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Software's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Software
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Software for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Software help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American Software generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: American Software goes ex dividend tomorrow |
Check out American Software Backtesting, American Software Valuation, American Software Correlation, American Software Hype Analysis, American Software Volatility, American Software History as well as American Software Performance. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Software's price analysis, check to measure American Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Software is operating at the current time. Most of American Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Software's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Software. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.293 | Dividend Share 0.44 | Earnings Share 0.31 | Revenue Per Share 3.523 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of American Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Software is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.