Amazon Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 174.48

AMZN Stock  USD 174.48  0.06  0.03%   
Amazon's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Amazon Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Amazon based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Amazon Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-22 CALL at $175.0 is a CALL option contract on Amazon's common stock with a strick price of 175.0 expiring on 2024-03-22. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-15 at 15:59:43 for $2.33 and, as of today, has 4 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.3, and an ask price of $2.37. The implied volatility as of the 18th of March 2024 is 28.41. View All Amazon options

Closest to current price Amazon long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Amazon's future price is the expected price of Amazon instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Amazon Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Amazon Backtesting, Amazon Valuation, Amazon Correlation, Amazon Hype Analysis, Amazon Volatility, Amazon History as well as Amazon Performance.
  
At this time, Amazon's Price Earnings Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 18th of March 2024, Price To Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 5.15, while Price Book Value Ratio is likely to drop 7.50. Please specify Amazon's target price for which you would like Amazon odds to be computed.

Amazon Target Price Odds to finish over 174.48

The tendency of Amazon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 174.48 90 days 174.48 
about 12.5
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amazon to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 12.5 (This Amazon Inc probability density function shows the probability of Amazon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Amazon has a beta of 0.95. This suggests Amazon Inc market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Amazon is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1489, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Amazon Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Amazon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amazon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amazon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amazon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
172.49174.18175.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
166.80168.49191.86
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
174.96176.64178.33
Details
60 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
146.16160.61178.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amazon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amazon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amazon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Amazon Inc.

Amazon Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amazon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amazon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amazon Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amazon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.15
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.95
σ
Overall volatility
10.78
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

Amazon Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amazon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amazon Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Amazon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 135.61 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.2, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Amazon Inc has a current ratio of 0.92, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Amazon until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Amazon's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Amazon Inc sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Amazon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Amazon's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Amazon Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 63.0% of Amazon shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Temus Strategic Shift US Warehouses Aim To Rival Amazons Delivery Speeds

Amazon Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Amazon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Amazon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amazon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding10.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments87.3 B

Amazon Technical Analysis

Amazon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amazon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amazon Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amazon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Amazon Predictive Forecast Models

Amazon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Amazon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amazon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Amazon Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Amazon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amazon Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Amazon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 135.61 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.2, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Amazon Inc has a current ratio of 0.92, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Amazon until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Amazon's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Amazon Inc sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Amazon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Amazon's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Amazon Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 63.0% of Amazon shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Temus Strategic Shift US Warehouses Aim To Rival Amazons Delivery Speeds
When determining whether Amazon Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amazon's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amazon Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amazon Inc Stock:
Check out Amazon Backtesting, Amazon Valuation, Amazon Correlation, Amazon Hype Analysis, Amazon Volatility, Amazon History as well as Amazon Performance.
Note that the Amazon Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amazon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.

Complementary Tools for Amazon Stock analysis

When running Amazon's price analysis, check to measure Amazon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amazon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amazon. If investors know Amazon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amazon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
50.693
Earnings Share
2.9
Revenue Per Share
55.783
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.139
Return On Assets
0.0465
The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amazon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.