Absolute Convertible Arbitrage Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 11.05
| ARBOX Fund | USD 10.92 0.36 3.19% |
Absolute |
Absolute Convertible Target Price Odds to finish over 11.05
The tendency of Absolute Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 11.05 or more in 90 days |
| 10.92 | 90 days | 11.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Absolute Convertible to move over $ 11.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Absolute Convertible Arbitrage probability density function shows the probability of Absolute Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Absolute Convertible price to stay between its current price of $ 10.92 and $ 11.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.52 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Absolute Convertible has the beta coefficient that is very close to zero. This suggests the returns on NYSE COMPOSITE and Absolute Convertible do not appear to be sensitive. Additionally It does not look like Absolute Convertible's alpha can have any bearing on the current valuation. Absolute Convertible Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Absolute Convertible
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Absolute Convertible. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Absolute Convertible's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Absolute Convertible Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Absolute Convertible is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Absolute Convertible's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Absolute Convertible Arbitrage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Absolute Convertible within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.00 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.00 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Absolute Convertible Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Absolute Convertible for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Absolute Convertible can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Absolute Convertible generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund holds about 45.81% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Absolute Convertible Technical Analysis
Absolute Convertible's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Absolute Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Absolute Convertible Arbitrage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Absolute Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Absolute Convertible Predictive Forecast Models
Absolute Convertible's time-series forecasting models is one of many Absolute Convertible's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Absolute Convertible's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Absolute Convertible
Checking the ongoing alerts about Absolute Convertible for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Absolute Convertible help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Absolute Convertible generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund holds about 45.81% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Absolute Mutual Fund
Absolute Convertible financial ratios help investors to determine whether Absolute Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Absolute with respect to the benefits of owning Absolute Convertible security.
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