Arcos Dorados Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.39

ARCO Stock  USD 10.76  0.12  1.13%   
Arcos Dorados' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Arcos Dorados Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Arcos Dorados based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Arcos Dorados Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $10.0 is a CALL option contract on Arcos Dorados' common stock with a strick price of 10.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-04-17 at 10:19:17 for $0.76 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.6, and an ask price of $1.75. The implied volatility as of the 19th of April is 623.63. View All Arcos options

Closest to current price Arcos long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Arcos Dorados' future price is the expected price of Arcos Dorados instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Arcos Dorados Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Arcos Dorados Backtesting, Arcos Dorados Valuation, Arcos Dorados Correlation, Arcos Dorados Hype Analysis, Arcos Dorados Volatility, Arcos Dorados History as well as Arcos Dorados Performance.
  
At this time, Arcos Dorados' Price To Sales Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 19th of April 2024, Price Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 24.94, while Price Book Value Ratio is likely to drop 5.46. Please specify Arcos Dorados' target price for which you would like Arcos Dorados odds to be computed.

Arcos Dorados Target Price Odds to finish below 7.39

The tendency of Arcos Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 7.39  or more in 90 days
 10.76 90 days 7.39 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arcos Dorados to drop to $ 7.39  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Arcos Dorados Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Arcos Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arcos Dorados Holdings price to stay between $ 7.39  and its current price of $10.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.21 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.07 . This suggests Arcos Dorados Holdings market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Arcos Dorados is expected to follow. Additionally Arcos Dorados Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite.
   Arcos Dorados Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Arcos Dorados

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcos Dorados Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcos Dorados' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.8510.7512.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.3712.2714.17
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.0513.2414.70
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.170.170.17
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arcos Dorados. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arcos Dorados' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arcos Dorados' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Arcos Dorados Holdings.

Arcos Dorados Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arcos Dorados is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arcos Dorados' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arcos Dorados Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arcos Dorados within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.21
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.07
σ
Overall volatility
0.64
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Arcos Dorados Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arcos Dorados for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arcos Dorados Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Arcos Dorados generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 1.56 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 7.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Arcos Dorados Holdings has a current ratio of 0.84, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Arcos Dorados until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Arcos Dorados' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Arcos Dorados Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Arcos to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Arcos Dorados' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Arcos Dorados has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
On 28th of March 2024 Arcos Dorados paid $ 0.06 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from businesswire.com: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. First Quarter 2024 Results Webcast Date and Time

Arcos Dorados Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arcos Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arcos Dorados' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcos Dorados' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding210.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments304.4 M

Arcos Dorados Technical Analysis

Arcos Dorados' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arcos Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arcos Dorados Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arcos Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Arcos Dorados Predictive Forecast Models

Arcos Dorados' time-series forecasting models is one of many Arcos Dorados' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arcos Dorados' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Arcos Dorados Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Arcos Dorados for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arcos Dorados Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Arcos Dorados generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 1.56 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 7.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Arcos Dorados Holdings has a current ratio of 0.84, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Arcos Dorados until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Arcos Dorados' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Arcos Dorados Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Arcos to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Arcos Dorados' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Arcos Dorados has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
On 28th of March 2024 Arcos Dorados paid $ 0.06 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from businesswire.com: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. First Quarter 2024 Results Webcast Date and Time
When determining whether Arcos Dorados Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Arcos Dorados' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Arcos Dorados Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Arcos Dorados Holdings Stock:
Check out Arcos Dorados Backtesting, Arcos Dorados Valuation, Arcos Dorados Correlation, Arcos Dorados Hype Analysis, Arcos Dorados Volatility, Arcos Dorados History as well as Arcos Dorados Performance.
Note that the Arcos Dorados Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arcos Dorados' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Arcos Stock analysis

When running Arcos Dorados' price analysis, check to measure Arcos Dorados' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcos Dorados is operating at the current time. Most of Arcos Dorados' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcos Dorados' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcos Dorados' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcos Dorados to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arcos Dorados' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arcos Dorados. If investors know Arcos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arcos Dorados listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.005
Dividend Share
0.19
Earnings Share
0.86
Revenue Per Share
20.566
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.154
The market value of Arcos Dorados Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arcos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arcos Dorados' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arcos Dorados' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arcos Dorados' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arcos Dorados' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arcos Dorados' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arcos Dorados is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arcos Dorados' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.