Alger Smidcap Focus Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 26.00
| ASMZX Fund | USD 12.95 0.03 0.23% |
Alger |
Alger Smidcap Target Price Odds to finish below 26.00
The tendency of Alger Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 26.00 after 90 days |
| 12.95 | 90 days | 26.00 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alger Smidcap to stay under $ 26.00 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Alger Smidcap Focus probability density function shows the probability of Alger Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alger Smidcap Focus price to stay between its current price of $ 12.95 and $ 26.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.56 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alger Smidcap will likely underperform. Additionally Alger Smidcap Focus has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Alger Smidcap Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alger Smidcap
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alger Smidcap Focus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alger Smidcap's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alger Smidcap Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alger Smidcap is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alger Smidcap's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alger Smidcap Focus, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alger Smidcap within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.56 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Alger Smidcap Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alger Smidcap for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alger Smidcap Focus can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alger Smidcap Focus generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -10.0% | |
| Alger Smidcap Focus holds about 8.37% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Alger Smidcap Technical Analysis
Alger Smidcap's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alger Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alger Smidcap Focus. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alger Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alger Smidcap Predictive Forecast Models
Alger Smidcap's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alger Smidcap's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alger Smidcap's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alger Smidcap Focus
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alger Smidcap for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alger Smidcap Focus help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alger Smidcap Focus generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -10.0% | |
| Alger Smidcap Focus holds about 8.37% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Check out Alger Smidcap Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Alger Smidcap Correlation, Alger Smidcap Hype Analysis, Alger Smidcap Volatility, Alger Smidcap History as well as Alger Smidcap Performance. Note that the Alger Smidcap Focus information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alger Smidcap's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.