Astec Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 54.18

ASTE -  USA Stock  

USD 52.12  0.48  0.91%

Astec Inds' future price is the expected price of Astec Inds instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Astec Inds performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 28.25, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to 2.02.

Astec Price Probability 

 
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Astec Inds' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Astec Inds. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Astec Inds based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Astec Inds over a specific time period. For example, 2021-11-19 CALL at $50.0 is a CALL option contract on Astec Inds' common stock with a strick price of 50.0 expiring on 2021-11-19. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 27 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.1, and an ask price of $5.5. The implied volatility as of the 23rd of October is 55.791. View All Astec options

Closest to current price Astec long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Astec Inds Backtesting, Astec Inds Valuation, Astec Inds Correlation, Astec Inds Hype Analysis, Astec Inds Volatility, Astec Inds History as well as Astec Inds Performance. Please specify Astec Inds time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Astec Inds odds to be computed.
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Astec Inds Target Price Odds to finish over 54.18

The tendency of Astec Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 54.18  or more in 90 days
 52.12 90 days 54.18  about 80.23
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Astec Inds to move over $ 54.18  or more in 90 days from now is about 80.23 (This Astec Inds probability density function shows the probability of Astec Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Astec Inds price to stay between its current price of $ 52.12  and $ 54.18  at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.02 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.51 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Astec Inds will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Astec Inds is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Astec Inds Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Astec Inds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astec Inds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astec Inds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Astec Inds in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
50.3752.0153.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
46.9161.3663.00
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
50.2151.8553.49
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
81.0086.5092.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Astec Inds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Astec Inds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Astec Inds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Astec Inds.

Astec Inds Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Astec Inds is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Astec Inds' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Astec Inds, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Astec Inds within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.22
β
Beta against DOW1.51
σ
Overall volatility
3.60
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Astec Inds Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Astec Inds for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Astec Inds can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Astec Inds generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Astec Inds has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Astec Inds has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Pasricha Anshu of 153 shares of Astec Inds subject to Rule 16b-3

Astec Inds Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Astec Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Astec Inds' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astec Inds' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.08%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.44
Short Percent Of Float1.46%
Float Shares22.32M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day82.25k
Shares Short Prior Month354.04k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month80.03k
Date Short Interest13th of August 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.85%

Astec Inds Technical Analysis

Astec Inds' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Astec Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Astec Inds. In general, you should focus on analyzing Astec Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Astec Inds Predictive Forecast Models

Astec Inds time-series forecasting models is one of many Astec Inds' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Astec Inds' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Astec Inds

Checking the ongoing alerts about Astec Inds for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Astec Inds help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Astec Inds Alerts

Astec Inds Alerts and Suggestions

Astec Inds generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Astec Inds has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Astec Inds has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Pasricha Anshu of 153 shares of Astec Inds subject to Rule 16b-3
Please continue to Astec Inds Backtesting, Astec Inds Valuation, Astec Inds Correlation, Astec Inds Hype Analysis, Astec Inds Volatility, Astec Inds History as well as Astec Inds Performance. Note that the Astec Inds information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Astec Inds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

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When running Astec Inds price analysis, check to measure Astec Inds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astec Inds is operating at the current time. Most of Astec Inds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astec Inds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astec Inds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astec Inds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Astec Inds is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astec that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astec Inds' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astec Inds' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astec Inds' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astec Inds underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astec Inds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Astec Inds value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astec Inds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.