Activision Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 125.0

ATVI -  USA Stock  

USD 58.60  1.71  2.84%

Activision Blizzard's future price is the expected price of Activision Blizzard instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Activision Blizzard performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to 38.96, while Price to Book Value is projected to decrease to 4.13.

Activision Price Probability 

Activision Blizzard's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Activision Blizzard. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Activision Blizzard based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Activision Blizzard over a specific time period. For example, 2021-12-03 CALL at $59.0 is a CALL option contract on Activision Blizzard's common stock with a strick price of 59.0 expiring on 2021-12-03. The contract was last traded on 2021-11-29 at 15:46:23 for $1.94 and, as of today, has 3 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.6, and an ask price of $1.85. The implied volatility as of the 30th of November is 37.3213. View All Activision options

Closest to current price Activision long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Activision Blizzard Backtesting, Activision Blizzard Valuation, Activision Blizzard Correlation, Activision Blizzard Hype Analysis, Activision Blizzard Volatility, Activision Blizzard History as well as Activision Blizzard Performance. Please specify Activision Blizzard time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Activision Blizzard odds to be computed.
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Activision Blizzard Target Price Odds to finish over 125.0

The tendency of Activision Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 125.00  or more in 90 days
 58.60 90 days 125.00  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Activision Blizzard to move over $ 125.00  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Activision Blizzard probability density function shows the probability of Activision Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Activision Blizzard price to stay between its current price of $ 58.60  and $ 125.00  at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Activision Blizzard has a beta of 0.56. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Activision Blizzard average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Activision Blizzard will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Activision Blizzard is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Activision Blizzard Price Density 

Predictive Modules for Activision Blizzard

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Activision Blizzard. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Activision Blizzard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Activision Blizzard in the context of predictive analytics.
LowEstimated ValueHigh
LowReal ValueHigh
LowNext ValueHigh
21 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Activision Blizzard. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Activision Blizzard's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Activision Blizzard's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Activision Blizzard.

Activision Blizzard Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Activision Blizzard is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Activision Blizzard's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Activision Blizzard, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Activision Blizzard within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW0.56
Overall volatility
Information ratio -0.17

Activision Blizzard Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Activision Blizzard for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Activision Blizzard can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Activision Blizzard generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from Roblox vs. Activision Blizzard Which Video Game Stock is a Better Buy - Entrepreneur

Activision Blizzard Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Activision Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Activision Blizzard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Activision Blizzard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.80%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.47
Short Percent Of Float1.81%
Float Shares771.94M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day18.24M
Shares Short Prior Month9.98M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month10.75M
Date Short Interest13th of August 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.73%

Activision Blizzard Technical Analysis

Activision Blizzard's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Activision Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Activision Blizzard. In general, you should focus on analyzing Activision Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Activision Blizzard Predictive Forecast Models

Activision Blizzard time-series forecasting models is one of many Activision Blizzard's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Activision Blizzard's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Activision Blizzard

Checking the ongoing alerts about Activision Blizzard for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Activision Blizzard help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Activision Blizzard Alerts

Activision Blizzard Alerts and Suggestions

Activision Blizzard generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from Roblox vs. Activision Blizzard Which Video Game Stock is a Better Buy - Entrepreneur
Please continue to Activision Blizzard Backtesting, Activision Blizzard Valuation, Activision Blizzard Correlation, Activision Blizzard Hype Analysis, Activision Blizzard Volatility, Activision Blizzard History as well as Activision Blizzard Performance. Note that the Activision Blizzard information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Activision Blizzard's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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When running Activision Blizzard price analysis, check to measure Activision Blizzard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Activision Blizzard is operating at the current time. Most of Activision Blizzard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Activision Blizzard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Activision Blizzard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Activision Blizzard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Activision Blizzard's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Activision Blizzard. If investors know Activision will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Activision Blizzard listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Activision Blizzard is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Activision that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Activision Blizzard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Activision Blizzard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Activision Blizzard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Activision Blizzard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Activision Blizzard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Activision Blizzard value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Activision Blizzard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.