Golden Minerals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.38
| AUMN Stock | USD 0.64 0.01 2.29% |
Golden |
Golden Minerals Target Price Odds to finish below 0.38
The tendency of Golden Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.38 or more in 90 days |
| 0.64 | 90 days | 0.38 | about 25.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Golden Minerals to drop to $ 0.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 25.18 (This Golden Minerals probability density function shows the probability of Golden Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Golden Minerals price to stay between $ 0.38 and its current price of $0.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 68.07 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.86 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Golden Minerals will likely underperform. Additionally Golden Minerals has an alpha of 0.8519, implying that it can generate a 0.85 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Golden Minerals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Golden Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golden Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golden Minerals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Golden Minerals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Golden Minerals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Golden Minerals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Golden Minerals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Golden Minerals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.85 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.86 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Golden Minerals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Golden Minerals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Golden Minerals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Golden Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Golden Minerals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Golden Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 12 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.23 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 11.94 M. | |
| Golden Minerals currently holds about 6.54 M in cash with (9.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.04. | |
| Golden Minerals has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Closing Bell Golden Minerals Company up on Monday - The Globe and Mail |
Golden Minerals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Golden Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Golden Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Golden Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 M |
Golden Minerals Technical Analysis
Golden Minerals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Golden Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Golden Minerals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Golden Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Golden Minerals Predictive Forecast Models
Golden Minerals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Golden Minerals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Golden Minerals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Golden Minerals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Golden Minerals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Golden Minerals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Golden Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Golden Minerals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Golden Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 12 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.23 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 11.94 M. | |
| Golden Minerals currently holds about 6.54 M in cash with (9.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.04. | |
| Golden Minerals has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Closing Bell Golden Minerals Company up on Monday - The Globe and Mail |
Check out Golden Minerals Backtesting, Golden Minerals Valuation, Golden Minerals Correlation, Golden Minerals Hype Analysis, Golden Minerals Volatility, Golden Minerals History as well as Golden Minerals Performance. To learn how to invest in Golden Stock, please use our How to Invest in Golden Minerals guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Golden Stock analysis
When running Golden Minerals' price analysis, check to measure Golden Minerals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golden Minerals is operating at the current time. Most of Golden Minerals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golden Minerals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golden Minerals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golden Minerals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Golden Minerals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Golden Minerals. If investors know Golden will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Golden Minerals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.08) | Revenue Per Share 1.405 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.94) | Return On Assets (0.33) | Return On Equity (1.59) |
The market value of Golden Minerals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Golden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Golden Minerals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Golden Minerals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Golden Minerals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Golden Minerals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Golden Minerals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golden Minerals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golden Minerals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.