Aerovironment Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 91.45
| AVAV Stock | USD 146.70 0.08 0.05% |
Closest to current price AeroVironment long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
AeroVironment |
AeroVironment Target Price Odds to finish below 91.45
The tendency of AeroVironment Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 91.45 or more in 90 days |
| 146.70 | 90 days | 91.45 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AeroVironment to drop to $ 91.45 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AeroVironment probability density function shows the probability of AeroVironment Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AeroVironment price to stay between $ 91.45 and its current price of $146.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.13 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days AeroVironment has a beta of 0.94. This suggests AeroVironment market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, AeroVironment is expected to follow. Additionally AeroVironment has an alpha of 0.2839, implying that it can generate a 0.28 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AeroVironment Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AeroVironment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AeroVironment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AeroVironment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AeroVironment Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AeroVironment is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AeroVironment's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AeroVironment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AeroVironment within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.28 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.94 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.97 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
AeroVironment Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AeroVironment for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AeroVironment can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AeroVironment had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 540.54 M. Net Loss for the year was (176.17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 173.51 M. | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: AeroVironment secures 8.9M Marine Corps contract |
AeroVironment Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AeroVironment Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AeroVironment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AeroVironment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 132.9 M |
AeroVironment Technical Analysis
AeroVironment's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AeroVironment Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AeroVironment. In general, you should focus on analyzing AeroVironment Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AeroVironment Predictive Forecast Models
AeroVironment's time-series forecasting models is one of many AeroVironment's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AeroVironment's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AeroVironment
Checking the ongoing alerts about AeroVironment for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AeroVironment help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AeroVironment had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 540.54 M. Net Loss for the year was (176.17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 173.51 M. | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: AeroVironment secures 8.9M Marine Corps contract |
Check out AeroVironment Backtesting, AeroVironment Valuation, AeroVironment Correlation, AeroVironment Hype Analysis, AeroVironment Volatility, AeroVironment History as well as AeroVironment Performance. For more information on how to buy AeroVironment Stock please use our How to Invest in AeroVironment guide.Note that the AeroVironment information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AeroVironment's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Complementary Tools for AeroVironment Stock analysis
When running AeroVironment's price analysis, check to measure AeroVironment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AeroVironment is operating at the current time. Most of AeroVironment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AeroVironment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AeroVironment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AeroVironment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AeroVironment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AeroVironment. If investors know AeroVironment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AeroVironment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.36) | Earnings Share (4.42) | Revenue Per Share 26.551 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.388 | Return On Assets 0.068 |
The market value of AeroVironment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AeroVironment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AeroVironment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AeroVironment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AeroVironment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AeroVironment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AeroVironment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AeroVironment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AeroVironment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.