Atea Pharmaceuticalsinc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.22

AVIR Stock  USD 3.77  0.23  5.75%   
Atea PharmaceuticalsI's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Atea PharmaceuticalsInc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Atea PharmaceuticalsI based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Atea PharmaceuticalsInc over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $5.0 is a CALL option contract on Atea PharmaceuticalsI's common stock with a strick price of 5.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 13:57:32 for $0.05 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.0, and an ask price of $0.05. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 76.6. View All Atea options

Closest to current price Atea long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Atea PharmaceuticalsI's future price is the expected price of Atea PharmaceuticalsI instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Atea PharmaceuticalsInc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Atea PharmaceuticalsI Backtesting, Atea PharmaceuticalsI Valuation, Atea PharmaceuticalsI Correlation, Atea PharmaceuticalsI Hype Analysis, Atea PharmaceuticalsI Volatility, Atea PharmaceuticalsI History as well as Atea PharmaceuticalsI Performance.
  
At this time, Atea PharmaceuticalsI's Price Book Value Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to 0.03, while Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 2.45. Please specify Atea PharmaceuticalsI's target price for which you would like Atea PharmaceuticalsI odds to be computed.

Atea PharmaceuticalsI Target Price Odds to finish over 19.22

The tendency of Atea Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 19.22  or more in 90 days
 3.77 90 days 19.22 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Atea PharmaceuticalsI to move over $ 19.22  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Atea PharmaceuticalsInc probability density function shows the probability of Atea Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Atea PharmaceuticalsInc price to stay between its current price of $ 3.77  and $ 19.22  at the end of the 90-day period is about 55.68 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Atea PharmaceuticalsI has a beta of 0.13. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Atea PharmaceuticalsI average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Atea PharmaceuticalsInc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Atea PharmaceuticalsInc has an alpha of 0.3706, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Atea PharmaceuticalsI Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Atea PharmaceuticalsI

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atea PharmaceuticalsInc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atea PharmaceuticalsI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.243.847.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.183.607.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.253.857.45
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.644.004.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Atea PharmaceuticalsI. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Atea PharmaceuticalsI's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Atea PharmaceuticalsI's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Atea PharmaceuticalsInc.

Atea PharmaceuticalsI Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Atea PharmaceuticalsI is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Atea PharmaceuticalsI's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Atea PharmaceuticalsInc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Atea PharmaceuticalsI within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.37
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.13
σ
Overall volatility
0.42
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Atea PharmaceuticalsI Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Atea PharmaceuticalsI for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Atea PharmaceuticalsInc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Atea PharmaceuticalsI had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Net Loss for the year was (135.96 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (81.94 M).
Atea PharmaceuticalsInc currently holds about 684.48 M in cash with (85.39 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.22, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Atea PharmaceuticalsI has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: William Blair Comments on Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc.s FY2025 Earnings

Atea PharmaceuticalsI Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Atea Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Atea PharmaceuticalsI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Atea PharmaceuticalsI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding83.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments578.1 M

Atea PharmaceuticalsI Technical Analysis

Atea PharmaceuticalsI's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Atea Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Atea PharmaceuticalsInc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Atea Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Atea PharmaceuticalsI Predictive Forecast Models

Atea PharmaceuticalsI's time-series forecasting models is one of many Atea PharmaceuticalsI's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Atea PharmaceuticalsI's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Atea PharmaceuticalsInc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Atea PharmaceuticalsI for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Atea PharmaceuticalsInc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Atea PharmaceuticalsI had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Net Loss for the year was (135.96 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (81.94 M).
Atea PharmaceuticalsInc currently holds about 684.48 M in cash with (85.39 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.22, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Atea PharmaceuticalsI has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: William Blair Comments on Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc.s FY2025 Earnings
When determining whether Atea PharmaceuticalsInc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Atea PharmaceuticalsI's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Atea PharmaceuticalsI's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Atea Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Atea Stock analysis

When running Atea PharmaceuticalsI's price analysis, check to measure Atea PharmaceuticalsI's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Atea PharmaceuticalsI is operating at the current time. Most of Atea PharmaceuticalsI's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Atea PharmaceuticalsI's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Atea PharmaceuticalsI's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Atea PharmaceuticalsI to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Atea PharmaceuticalsI's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atea PharmaceuticalsI. If investors know Atea will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Atea PharmaceuticalsI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.641
Earnings Share
(1.63)
Revenue Per Share
2.31
Quarterly Revenue Growth
2.952
Return On Assets
(0.12)
The market value of Atea PharmaceuticalsInc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atea that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atea PharmaceuticalsI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atea PharmaceuticalsI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atea PharmaceuticalsI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atea PharmaceuticalsI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atea PharmaceuticalsI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Atea PharmaceuticalsI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atea PharmaceuticalsI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.