Axcella Health Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.0
| AXLADelisted Stock | USD 3.20 0.90 21.95% |
Axcella |
Axcella Health Target Price Odds to finish over 15.0
The tendency of Axcella Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 15.00 or more in 90 days |
| 3.20 | 90 days | 15.00 | about 14.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Axcella Health to move over $ 15.00 or more in 90 days from now is about 14.6 (This Axcella Health probability density function shows the probability of Axcella Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Axcella Health price to stay between its current price of $ 3.20 and $ 15.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.13 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Axcella Health has a beta of -0.11. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Axcella Health are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Axcella Health is likely to outperform the market. In addition to that Axcella Health has an alpha of 4.0613, implying that it can generate a 4.06 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Axcella Health Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Axcella Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axcella Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axcella Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Axcella Health Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Axcella Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Axcella Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Axcella Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Axcella Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 4.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Axcella Health Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Axcella Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Axcella Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Axcella Health is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Axcella Health has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (81.19 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Axcella Health currently holds about 44.4 M in cash with (69.59 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.84. | |
| Roughly 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Axcella Health Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Axcella Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Axcella Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Axcella Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.1 M |
Axcella Health Technical Analysis
Axcella Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Axcella Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Axcella Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Axcella Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Axcella Health Predictive Forecast Models
Axcella Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many Axcella Health's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Axcella Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Axcella Health
Checking the ongoing alerts about Axcella Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Axcella Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Axcella Health is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Axcella Health has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (81.19 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Axcella Health currently holds about 44.4 M in cash with (69.59 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.84. | |
| Roughly 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Other Consideration for investing in Axcella Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Axcella Health check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Axcella Health's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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