BELLUS Health Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.39
| BLUDelisted Stock | USD 14.74 0.00 0.00% |
BELLUS |
BELLUS Health Target Price Odds to finish below 11.39
The tendency of BELLUS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 11.39 or more in 90 days |
| 14.74 | 90 days | 11.39 | about 32.34 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BELLUS Health to drop to $ 11.39 or more in 90 days from now is about 32.34 (This BELLUS Health probability density function shows the probability of BELLUS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BELLUS Health price to stay between $ 11.39 and its current price of $14.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.07 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.48 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, BELLUS Health will likely underperform. Moreover BELLUS Health has an alpha of 1.2732, implying that it can generate a 1.27 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). BELLUS Health Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BELLUS Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BELLUS Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BELLUS Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BELLUS Health Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BELLUS Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BELLUS Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BELLUS Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BELLUS Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 1.27 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
BELLUS Health Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BELLUS Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BELLUS Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BELLUS Health is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| BELLUS Health has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 16 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (76.08 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16 K. | |
| BELLUS Health has about 220.14 M in cash with (77.1 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.75. | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
BELLUS Health Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BELLUS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BELLUS Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BELLUS Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 115.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 337.1 M |
BELLUS Health Technical Analysis
BELLUS Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BELLUS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BELLUS Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing BELLUS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BELLUS Health Predictive Forecast Models
BELLUS Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many BELLUS Health's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BELLUS Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BELLUS Health
Checking the ongoing alerts about BELLUS Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BELLUS Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BELLUS Health is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| BELLUS Health has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 16 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (76.08 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16 K. | |
| BELLUS Health has about 220.14 M in cash with (77.1 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.75. | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Other Consideration for investing in BELLUS Stock
If you are still planning to invest in BELLUS Health check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the BELLUS Health's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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