Sierra Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.21
| BSRR Stock | USD 18.09 0.10 0.56% |
Closest to current price Sierra long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Sierra |
Sierra Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 14.21
The tendency of Sierra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 14.21 or more in 90 days |
| 18.09 | 90 days | 14.21 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sierra Bancorp to drop to $ 14.21 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Sierra Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Sierra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sierra Bancorp price to stay between $ 14.21 and its current price of $18.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.62 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.88 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Sierra Bancorp will likely underperform. Additionally Sierra Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Sierra Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Sierra Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sierra Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sierra Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sierra Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sierra Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sierra Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sierra Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sierra Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Sierra Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sierra Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sierra Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sierra Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 57.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from aol.com: How much rain fell in Sacramento this weekend See whats next for the weather |
Sierra Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sierra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sierra Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sierra Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -78.6 M |
Sierra Bancorp Technical Analysis
Sierra Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sierra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sierra Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sierra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sierra Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
Sierra Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sierra Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sierra Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sierra Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sierra Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sierra Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sierra Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 57.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from aol.com: How much rain fell in Sacramento this weekend See whats next for the weather |
Check out Sierra Bancorp Backtesting, Sierra Bancorp Valuation, Sierra Bancorp Correlation, Sierra Bancorp Hype Analysis, Sierra Bancorp Volatility, Sierra Bancorp History as well as Sierra Bancorp Performance. To learn how to invest in Sierra Stock, please use our How to Invest in Sierra Bancorp guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Complementary Tools for Sierra Stock analysis
When running Sierra Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Sierra Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sierra Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Sierra Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sierra Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sierra Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sierra Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine | |
| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities | |
| Bond Analysis Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios. | |
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Content Syndication Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal |
Is Sierra Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sierra Bancorp. If investors know Sierra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sierra Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.1) | Dividend Share 0.92 | Earnings Share 2.36 | Revenue Per Share 9.46 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.061 |
The market value of Sierra Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sierra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sierra Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sierra Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sierra Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sierra Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sierra Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sierra Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sierra Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.