British Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 44.79

BTI -  USA Stock  

USD 44.79  0.29  0.64%

British Amer's future price is the expected price of British Amer instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of British American Tobacco performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Book Value is estimated to increase to 1.08. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to 9.70.
  
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British Amer's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on British American Tobacco. Implied volatility approximates the future value of British Amer based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in British American Tobacco over a specific time period. For example, 2022-06-17 CALL at $45.0 is a CALL option contract on British Amer's common stock with a strick price of 45.0 expiring on 2022-06-17. The contract was last traded on 2022-05-25 at 15:21:11 for $1.23 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.1, and an ask price of $1.25. The implied volatility as of the 27th of May is 28.0247. View All British options

Closest to current price British long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to British Amer Backtesting, British Amer Valuation, British Amer Correlation, British Amer Hype Analysis, British Amer Volatility, British Amer History as well as British Amer Performance. Please specify British Amer time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like British Amer odds to be computed.
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British Amer Target Price Odds to finish over 44.79

The tendency of British Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 44.79 90 days 44.79  under 4
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of British Amer to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 4 (This British American Tobacco probability density function shows the probability of British Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon British Amer has a beta of 0.76 suggesting as returns on the market go up, British Amer average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding British American Tobacco will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. British American Tobacco is significantly underperforming DOW.
 British Amer Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for British Amer

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as British American Tobacco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of British Amer's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of British Amer in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
42.5944.2645.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
39.8346.8348.50
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
43.3445.0246.69
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0050.5651.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as British Amer. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against British Amer's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, British Amer's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in British American Tobacco.

British Amer Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. British Amer is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the British Amer's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold British American Tobacco, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of British Amer within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.0003
β
Beta against DOW0.76
σ
Overall volatility
1.48
Ir
Information ratio 0.002877

British Amer Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of British Amer for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for British American Tobacco can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 39.66 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.59, which is OK given its current industry classification. British American Tobacco has a current ratio of 0.83, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist British Amer until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, British Amer's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like British American Tobacco sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for British to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about British Amer's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
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British Amer Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of British Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential British Amer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. British Amer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.22%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.12
Float Shares2.09B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.74M
Shares Short Prior Month3.85M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.79M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.94%

British Amer Technical Analysis

British Amer's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. British Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of British American Tobacco. In general, you should focus on analyzing British Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

British Amer Predictive Forecast Models

British Amer time-series forecasting models is one of many British Amer's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary British Amer's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about British American Tobacco

Checking the ongoing alerts about British Amer for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for British American Tobacco help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

British Amer Alerts

British Amer Alerts and Suggestions

The company has 39.66 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.59, which is OK given its current industry classification. British American Tobacco has a current ratio of 0.83, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist British Amer until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, British Amer's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like British American Tobacco sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for British to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about British Amer's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Latest headline from www.prnewswire.com: Nicotine Surges as Smoking Sags - PR Newswire
Continue to British Amer Backtesting, British Amer Valuation, British Amer Correlation, British Amer Hype Analysis, British Amer Volatility, British Amer History as well as British Amer Performance. Note that the British American Tobacco information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other British Amer's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running British American Tobacco price analysis, check to measure British Amer's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy British Amer is operating at the current time. Most of British Amer's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of British Amer's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move British Amer's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of British Amer to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is British Amer's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of British Amer. If investors know British will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about British Amer listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of British American Tobacco is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of British that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of British Amer's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is British Amer's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because British Amer's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect British Amer's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between British Amer's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine British Amer value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, British Amer's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.