Bumi Resources (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 104.0
| BUMI Stock | IDR 101.00 3.00 3.06% |
Bumi |
Bumi Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 104.0
The tendency of Bumi Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 104.00 after 90 days |
| 101.00 | 90 days | 104.00 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bumi Resources to stay under 104.00 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Bumi Resources Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Bumi Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bumi Resources Tbk price to stay between its current price of 101.00 and 104.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.05 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bumi Resources has a beta of 0.28 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bumi Resources average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bumi Resources Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bumi Resources Tbk has an alpha of 0.1329, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Bumi Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bumi Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bumi Resources Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bumi Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bumi Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bumi Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bumi Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bumi Resources Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bumi Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Bumi Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bumi Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bumi Resources Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bumi Resources Tbk had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company has accumulated 194.09 M in total debt. Bumi Resources Tbk has a current ratio of 0.3, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Bumi Resources until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Bumi Resources' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Bumi Resources Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Bumi to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Bumi Resources' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Bumi Resources Tbk has accumulated about 51.91 M in cash with (74.42 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 68.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Bumi Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bumi Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bumi Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bumi Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 74.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 221 M |
Bumi Resources Technical Analysis
Bumi Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bumi Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bumi Resources Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bumi Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bumi Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Bumi Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Bumi Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bumi Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bumi Resources Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bumi Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bumi Resources Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bumi Resources Tbk had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company has accumulated 194.09 M in total debt. Bumi Resources Tbk has a current ratio of 0.3, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Bumi Resources until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Bumi Resources' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Bumi Resources Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Bumi to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Bumi Resources' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Bumi Resources Tbk has accumulated about 51.91 M in cash with (74.42 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 68.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Bumi Resources Backtesting, Bumi Resources Valuation, Bumi Resources Correlation, Bumi Resources Hype Analysis, Bumi Resources Volatility, Bumi Resources History as well as Bumi Resources Performance. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Complementary Tools for Bumi Stock analysis
When running Bumi Resources' price analysis, check to measure Bumi Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bumi Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Bumi Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bumi Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bumi Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bumi Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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