Avis Budget Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 88.85
| CAR Stock | USD 103.30 0.68 0.66% |
Closest to current price Avis long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Avis |
Avis Budget Target Price Odds to finish over 88.85
The tendency of Avis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 88.85 in 90 days |
| 103.30 | 90 days | 88.85 | more than 94.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avis Budget to stay above $ 88.85 in 90 days from now is more than 94.0 (This Avis Budget Group probability density function shows the probability of Avis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avis Budget Group price to stay between $ 88.85 and its current price of $103.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.89 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.33 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Avis Budget will likely underperform. Additionally Avis Budget Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Avis Budget Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Avis Budget
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avis Budget Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avis Budget's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avis Budget Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avis Budget is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avis Budget's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avis Budget Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avis Budget within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.92 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 24.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Avis Budget Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avis Budget for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avis Budget Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avis Budget Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Avis Budget Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company has 26.45 B in debt. Avis Budget Group has a current ratio of 0.74, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Avis Budget until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Avis Budget's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Avis Budget Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Avis to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Avis Budget's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Avis Budget Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Minister Boissonnault highlights Budget investments to support every generation and build more homes for Canadians |
Avis Budget Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avis Budget's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avis Budget's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 559 M |
Avis Budget Technical Analysis
Avis Budget's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avis Budget Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Avis Budget Predictive Forecast Models
Avis Budget's time-series forecasting models is one of many Avis Budget's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Avis Budget's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Avis Budget Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Avis Budget for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Avis Budget Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Avis Budget Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Avis Budget Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company has 26.45 B in debt. Avis Budget Group has a current ratio of 0.74, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Avis Budget until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Avis Budget's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Avis Budget Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Avis to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Avis Budget's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Avis Budget Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Minister Boissonnault highlights Budget investments to support every generation and build more homes for Canadians |
Check out Avis Budget Backtesting, Avis Budget Valuation, Avis Budget Correlation, Avis Budget Hype Analysis, Avis Budget Volatility, Avis Budget History as well as Avis Budget Performance. Note that the Avis Budget Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Avis Budget's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Avis Stock analysis
When running Avis Budget's price analysis, check to measure Avis Budget's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avis Budget is operating at the current time. Most of Avis Budget's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avis Budget's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avis Budget's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avis Budget to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Avis Budget's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avis Budget. If investors know Avis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avis Budget listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | Earnings Share 42.08 | Revenue Per Share 313.525 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) | Return On Assets 0.0636 |
The market value of Avis Budget Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avis Budget's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avis Budget's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avis Budget's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avis Budget's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avis Budget's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avis Budget is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avis Budget's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.