Carver Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.56
| CARV Stock | USD 1.56 0.03 1.89% |
Carver |
Carver Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish over 1.56
The tendency of Carver Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 1.56 | 90 days | 1.56 | about 72.57 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carver Bancorp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 72.57 (This Carver Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Carver Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Carver Bancorp has a beta of -0.35 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Carver Bancorp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Carver Bancorp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Carver Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Carver Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Carver Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carver Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carver Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Carver Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carver Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carver Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carver Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carver Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Carver Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carver Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carver Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Carver Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Carver Bancorp may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Carver Bancorp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Carver Bancorp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 26.38 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 27.22 M. | |
| Carver Bancorp currently holds about 43.38 M in cash with (10.51 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.27, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Michael Pugh of 10000 shares of Carver Bancorp subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Carver Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carver Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carver Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carver Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 668 K |
Carver Bancorp Technical Analysis
Carver Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carver Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carver Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carver Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Carver Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
Carver Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Carver Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carver Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Carver Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Carver Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carver Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Carver Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Carver Bancorp may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Carver Bancorp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Carver Bancorp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 26.38 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 27.22 M. | |
| Carver Bancorp currently holds about 43.38 M in cash with (10.51 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.27, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Michael Pugh of 10000 shares of Carver Bancorp subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Carver Bancorp Backtesting, Carver Bancorp Valuation, Carver Bancorp Correlation, Carver Bancorp Hype Analysis, Carver Bancorp Volatility, Carver Bancorp History as well as Carver Bancorp Performance. For more information on how to buy Carver Stock please use our How to Invest in Carver Bancorp guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Carver Stock analysis
When running Carver Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Carver Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carver Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Carver Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carver Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carver Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carver Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Carver Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carver Bancorp. If investors know Carver will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carver Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.98) | Revenue Per Share 5.926 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.262 | Return On Assets (0.01) | Return On Equity (0.10) |
The market value of Carver Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carver that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carver Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carver Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carver Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carver Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carver Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carver Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carver Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.