Caterpillar Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 164.24

CAT
 Stock
  

USD 164.24  6.31  3.70%   

Caterpillar's future price is the expected price of Caterpillar instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Caterpillar performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Caterpillar's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Caterpillar. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Caterpillar based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Caterpillar over a specific time period. For example, 2022-09-30 CALL at $165.0 is a CALL option contract on Caterpillar's common stock with a strick price of 165.0 expiring on 2022-09-30. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-23 at 15:55:16 for $3.3 and, as of today, has 5 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.15, and an ask price of $3.4. The implied volatility as of the 25th of September is 43.6354. View All Caterpillar options

Closest to current price Caterpillar long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Caterpillar Backtesting, Caterpillar Valuation, Caterpillar Correlation, Caterpillar Hype Analysis, Caterpillar Volatility, Caterpillar History as well as Caterpillar Performance. Please specify Caterpillar time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Caterpillar odds to be computed.

Caterpillar Target Price Odds to finish over 164.24

The tendency of Caterpillar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 164.24 90 days 164.24 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Caterpillar to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Caterpillar probability density function shows the probability of Caterpillar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.36 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Caterpillar will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Caterpillar is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Caterpillar Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Caterpillar

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caterpillar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caterpillar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Caterpillar in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
161.81163.91166.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
147.82205.19207.29
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
164.00237.57270.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Caterpillar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Caterpillar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Caterpillar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Caterpillar.

Caterpillar Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Caterpillar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Caterpillar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Caterpillar, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Caterpillar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.11
β
Beta against DOW1.36
σ
Overall volatility
8.32
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Caterpillar Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Caterpillar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Caterpillar can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Caterpillar generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 19th of August 2022 Caterpillar paid $ 1.2 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Should You Be Adding Caterpillar To Your Watchlist Today - Nasdaq

Caterpillar Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Caterpillar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Caterpillar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caterpillar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date19th of July 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out0.96%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate4.53
Short Percent Of Float0.96%
Float Shares526.63M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.56M
Shares Short Prior Month5.34M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.78M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022

Caterpillar Technical Analysis

Caterpillar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Caterpillar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Caterpillar. In general, you should focus on analyzing Caterpillar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Caterpillar Predictive Forecast Models

Caterpillar time-series forecasting models is one of many Caterpillar's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Caterpillar's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Caterpillar

Checking the ongoing alerts about Caterpillar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Caterpillar help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Caterpillar Alerts

Caterpillar Alerts and Suggestions

Caterpillar generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 19th of August 2022 Caterpillar paid $ 1.2 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Should You Be Adding Caterpillar To Your Watchlist Today - Nasdaq
Continue to Caterpillar Backtesting, Caterpillar Valuation, Caterpillar Correlation, Caterpillar Hype Analysis, Caterpillar Volatility, Caterpillar History as well as Caterpillar Performance. Note that the Caterpillar information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Caterpillar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for Caterpillar Stock analysis

When running Caterpillar price analysis, check to measure Caterpillar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caterpillar is operating at the current time. Most of Caterpillar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caterpillar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caterpillar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caterpillar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Caterpillar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caterpillar. If investors know Caterpillar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caterpillar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Caterpillar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caterpillar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caterpillar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caterpillar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caterpillar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caterpillar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caterpillar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Caterpillar value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caterpillar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.