Carnival Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 26.8

CCL Stock  USD 16.34  0.85  4.94%   
Carnival's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Carnival. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Carnival based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Carnival over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-05 CALL at $16.5 is a CALL option contract on Carnival's common stock with a strick price of 16.5 expiring on 2024-04-05. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 15:59:28 for $0.3 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.28, and an ask price of $0.3. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 42.17. View All Carnival options

Closest to current price Carnival long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Carnival's future price is the expected price of Carnival instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Carnival performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Carnival Backtesting, Carnival Valuation, Carnival Correlation, Carnival Hype Analysis, Carnival Volatility, Carnival History as well as Carnival Performance.
For more information on how to buy Carnival Stock please use our How to buy in Carnival Stock guide.
  
Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is expected to rise to 3.14 this year, although the value of Price Earnings Ratio is projected to rise to (280.59). Please specify Carnival's target price for which you would like Carnival odds to be computed.

Carnival Target Price Odds to finish over 26.8

The tendency of Carnival Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 26.80  or more in 90 days
 16.34 90 days 26.80 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carnival to move over $ 26.80  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Carnival probability density function shows the probability of Carnival Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carnival price to stay between its current price of $ 16.34  and $ 26.80  at the end of the 90-day period is about 54.47 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.48 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Carnival will likely underperform. Additionally Carnival has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Carnival Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Carnival

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carnival. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carnival's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.9116.3918.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.0216.5018.98
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
13.8416.3218.79
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
15.1916.6918.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carnival. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carnival's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carnival's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Carnival.

Carnival Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carnival is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carnival's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carnival, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carnival within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.39
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.48
σ
Overall volatility
0.98
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

Carnival Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carnival for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carnival can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carnival generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 31.89 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 4.21, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Carnival has a current ratio of 0.64, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Carnival until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Carnival's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Carnival sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Carnival to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Carnival's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the last year's revenue of 21.59 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (74 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 10.7 B.
About 61.0% of Carnival shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Asia Stocks Poised to Open Higher on US Tailwinds Markets Wrap

Carnival Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carnival Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carnival's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carnival's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.3 B
Cash And Short Term Investments2.4 B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Carnival's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carnival Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carnival. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carnival Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Carnival Predictive Forecast Models

Carnival's time-series forecasting models is one of many Carnival's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carnival's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Carnival

Checking the ongoing alerts about Carnival for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carnival help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carnival generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 31.89 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 4.21, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Carnival has a current ratio of 0.64, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Carnival until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Carnival's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Carnival sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Carnival to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Carnival's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the last year's revenue of 21.59 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (74 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 10.7 B.
About 61.0% of Carnival shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Asia Stocks Poised to Open Higher on US Tailwinds Markets Wrap
When determining whether Carnival is a strong investment it is important to analyze Carnival's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Carnival's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Carnival Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Carnival Backtesting, Carnival Valuation, Carnival Correlation, Carnival Hype Analysis, Carnival Volatility, Carnival History as well as Carnival Performance.
For more information on how to buy Carnival Stock please use our How to buy in Carnival Stock guide.
Note that the Carnival information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carnival's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.

Complementary Tools for Carnival Stock analysis

When running Carnival's price analysis, check to measure Carnival's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carnival is operating at the current time. Most of Carnival's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carnival's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carnival's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carnival to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Carnival's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carnival. If investors know Carnival will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carnival listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.14)
Earnings Share
0.32
Revenue Per Share
17.868
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.22
Return On Assets
0.0294
The market value of Carnival is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carnival that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carnival's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carnival's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carnival's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carnival's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carnival's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.