Century Aluminum Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.42
| CENX Stock | USD 17.42 0.09 0.51% |
Closest to current price Century long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Century |
Century Aluminum Target Price Odds to finish over 17.42
The tendency of Century Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 17.42 | 90 days | 17.42 | roughly 2.05 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Century Aluminum to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 2.05 (This Century Aluminum probability density function shows the probability of Century Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.04 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Century Aluminum will likely underperform. Additionally Century Aluminum has an alpha of 0.6777, implying that it can generate a 0.68 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Century Aluminum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Century Aluminum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Century Aluminum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Century Aluminum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Century Aluminum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Century Aluminum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Century Aluminum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Century Aluminum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Century Aluminum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.68 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
Century Aluminum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Century Aluminum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Century Aluminum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Century Aluminum appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.19 B. Net Loss for the year was (43.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 46.7 M. | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from aol.com: Kentucky can be Americas new aluminum frontier, creating clean jobs, prosperity Opinion |
Century Aluminum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Century Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Century Aluminum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Century Aluminum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 90.3 M |
Century Aluminum Technical Analysis
Century Aluminum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Century Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Century Aluminum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Century Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Century Aluminum Predictive Forecast Models
Century Aluminum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Century Aluminum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Century Aluminum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Century Aluminum
Checking the ongoing alerts about Century Aluminum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Century Aluminum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Century Aluminum appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.19 B. Net Loss for the year was (43.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 46.7 M. | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from aol.com: Kentucky can be Americas new aluminum frontier, creating clean jobs, prosperity Opinion |
Check out Century Aluminum Backtesting, Century Aluminum Valuation, Century Aluminum Correlation, Century Aluminum Hype Analysis, Century Aluminum Volatility, Century Aluminum History as well as Century Aluminum Performance. For more information on how to buy Century Stock please use our How to Invest in Century Aluminum guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Complementary Tools for Century Stock analysis
When running Century Aluminum's price analysis, check to measure Century Aluminum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Century Aluminum is operating at the current time. Most of Century Aluminum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Century Aluminum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Century Aluminum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Century Aluminum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Century Aluminum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Century Aluminum. If investors know Century will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Century Aluminum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Earnings Share (0.47) | Revenue Per Share 23.652 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets 0.012 |
The market value of Century Aluminum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Century that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Century Aluminum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Century Aluminum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Century Aluminum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Century Aluminum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Century Aluminum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Century Aluminum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Century Aluminum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.