Cf Industries Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 71.68

CF Stock  USD 83.21  0.60  0.73%   
CF Industries' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on CF Industries Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of CF Industries based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in CF Industries Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-05 CALL at $83.0 is a CALL option contract on CF Industries' common stock with a strick price of 83.0 expiring on 2024-04-05. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 15:22:57 for $1.3 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.2, and an ask price of $1.3. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 25.44. View All CF Industries options

Closest to current price CF Industries long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

CF Industries' future price is the expected price of CF Industries instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CF Industries Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out CF Industries Backtesting, CF Industries Valuation, CF Industries Correlation, CF Industries Hype Analysis, CF Industries Volatility, CF Industries History as well as CF Industries Performance.
  
The CF Industries' current Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to 15.65, while Price Earnings Ratio is projected to decrease to 5.22. Please specify CF Industries' target price for which you would like CF Industries odds to be computed.

CF Industries Target Price Odds to finish over 71.68

The tendency of CF Industries Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 71.68  in 90 days
 83.21 90 days 71.68 
about 99.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CF Industries to stay above $ 71.68  in 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This CF Industries Holdings probability density function shows the probability of CF Industries Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CF Industries Holdings price to stay between $ 71.68  and its current price of $83.21 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.14 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.05 suggesting CF Industries Holdings market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, CF Industries is expected to follow. Additionally CF Industries Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   CF Industries Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CF Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CF Industries Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CF Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
81.8283.2184.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
80.4181.8091.53
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
78.8380.2281.61
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
81.3989.4499.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CF Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CF Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CF Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CF Industries Holdings.

CF Industries Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CF Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CF Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CF Industries Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CF Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.05
σ
Overall volatility
3.39
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

CF Industries Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CF Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CF Industries Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 29th of February 2024 CF Industries paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Ammonia Market Surges Robust Growth of 234 MMT, With 1-2 percent CAGR to 2025 Says Procurement Intelligence Report ELINT Market Research

CF Industries Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CF Industries Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CF Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CF Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding193.8 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

CF Industries Technical Analysis

CF Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CF Industries Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CF Industries Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing CF Industries Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CF Industries Predictive Forecast Models

CF Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many CF Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CF Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CF Industries Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about CF Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CF Industries Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 29th of February 2024 CF Industries paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Ammonia Market Surges Robust Growth of 234 MMT, With 1-2 percent CAGR to 2025 Says Procurement Intelligence Report ELINT Market Research
When determining whether CF Industries Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze CF Industries' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact CF Industries' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding CF Industries Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out CF Industries Backtesting, CF Industries Valuation, CF Industries Correlation, CF Industries Hype Analysis, CF Industries Volatility, CF Industries History as well as CF Industries Performance.
Note that the CF Industries Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CF Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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When running CF Industries' price analysis, check to measure CF Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CF Industries is operating at the current time. Most of CF Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CF Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CF Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CF Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CF Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CF Industries. If investors know CF Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CF Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.67)
Dividend Share
1.6
Earnings Share
7.87
Revenue Per Share
34.304
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.40)
The market value of CF Industries Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CF Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CF Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CF Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CF Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CF Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CF Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CF Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CF Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.