Ciena Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 56.42
| CIEN Stock | USD 44.33 1.27 2.79% |
Closest to current price Ciena long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Ciena |
Ciena Corp Target Price Odds to finish below 56.42
The tendency of Ciena Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 56.42 after 90 days |
| 44.33 | 90 days | 56.42 | about 84.21 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ciena Corp to stay under $ 56.42 after 90 days from now is about 84.21 (This Ciena Corp probability density function shows the probability of Ciena Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ciena Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 44.33 and $ 56.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.34 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.3 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ciena Corp will likely underperform. Additionally Ciena Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Ciena Corp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ciena Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ciena Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ciena Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ciena Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ciena Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ciena Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ciena Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ciena Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Ciena Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ciena Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ciena Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ciena Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ciena Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from cnbc.com: Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell JPMorgan, BlackRock, Globe Life and more |
Ciena Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ciena Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ciena Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ciena Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 149.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Ciena Corp Technical Analysis
Ciena Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ciena Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ciena Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ciena Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ciena Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Ciena Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ciena Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ciena Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ciena Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ciena Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ciena Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ciena Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ciena Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from cnbc.com: Stocks making the biggest moves before the bell JPMorgan, BlackRock, Globe Life and more |
Check out Ciena Corp Backtesting, Ciena Corp Valuation, Ciena Corp Correlation, Ciena Corp Hype Analysis, Ciena Corp Volatility, Ciena Corp History as well as Ciena Corp Performance. To learn how to invest in Ciena Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ciena Corp guide.Note that the Ciena Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ciena Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Complementary Tools for Ciena Stock analysis
When running Ciena Corp's price analysis, check to measure Ciena Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ciena Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Ciena Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ciena Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ciena Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ciena Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ciena Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ciena Corp. If investors know Ciena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ciena Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share 1.54 | Revenue Per Share 29.507 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0424 |
The market value of Ciena Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ciena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ciena Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ciena Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ciena Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ciena Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ciena Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ciena Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ciena Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.