Cincinnati Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 120.02
| CINF Stock | USD 120.02 0.81 0.67% |
Closest to current price Cincinnati long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Cincinnati |
Cincinnati Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 120.02
The tendency of Cincinnati Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 120.02 | 90 days | 120.02 | about 14.89 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cincinnati Financial to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 14.89 (This Cincinnati Financial probability density function shows the probability of Cincinnati Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Cincinnati Financial has a beta of 0.63 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cincinnati Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cincinnati Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cincinnati Financial has an alpha of 0.0796, implying that it can generate a 0.0796 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cincinnati Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cincinnati Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cincinnati Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cincinnati Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cincinnati Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cincinnati Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cincinnati Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cincinnati Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cincinnati Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Cincinnati Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cincinnati Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cincinnati Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of April 2024 Cincinnati Financial paid $ 0.81 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Heres Why Cincinnati Financial is a Strong Momentum Stock |
Cincinnati Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cincinnati Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cincinnati Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cincinnati Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 158.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.7 B |
Cincinnati Financial Technical Analysis
Cincinnati Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cincinnati Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cincinnati Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cincinnati Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cincinnati Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Cincinnati Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cincinnati Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cincinnati Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cincinnati Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cincinnati Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cincinnati Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of April 2024 Cincinnati Financial paid $ 0.81 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Heres Why Cincinnati Financial is a Strong Momentum Stock |
Check out Cincinnati Financial Backtesting, Cincinnati Financial Valuation, Cincinnati Financial Correlation, Cincinnati Financial Hype Analysis, Cincinnati Financial Volatility, Cincinnati Financial History as well as Cincinnati Financial Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Cincinnati Stock please use our How to Invest in Cincinnati Financial guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Cincinnati Stock analysis
When running Cincinnati Financial's price analysis, check to measure Cincinnati Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cincinnati Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Cincinnati Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cincinnati Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cincinnati Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cincinnati Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cincinnati Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cincinnati Financial. If investors know Cincinnati will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cincinnati Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.17 | Dividend Share 3 | Earnings Share 11.66 | Revenue Per Share 63.777 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.077 |
The market value of Cincinnati Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cincinnati that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cincinnati Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cincinnati Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cincinnati Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cincinnati Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cincinnati Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cincinnati Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cincinnati Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.