Comtech Telecommunications Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.06

CMTL Stock  USD 3.06  0.08  2.55%   
Comtech Telecommunicatio's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Comtech Telecommunications Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Comtech Telecommunicatio based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Comtech Telecommunications Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2024-08-16 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Comtech Telecommunicatio's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2024-08-16. The contract was last traded on 2024-07-24 at 11:13:28 for $0.7 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.6, and an ask price of $0.8. The implied volatility as of the 25th of July is 134.33. View All Comtech options

Closest to current price Comtech long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Comtech Telecommunicatio's future price is the expected price of Comtech Telecommunicatio instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Comtech Telecommunications Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Comtech Telecommunicatio Backtesting, Comtech Telecommunicatio Valuation, Comtech Telecommunicatio Correlation, Comtech Telecommunicatio Hype Analysis, Comtech Telecommunicatio Volatility, Comtech Telecommunicatio History as well as Comtech Telecommunicatio Performance.
  
At this time, Comtech Telecommunicatio's Price To Sales Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is expected to rise to 0.55 this year, although Price Book Value Ratio will most likely fall to 0.56. Please specify Comtech Telecommunicatio's target price for which you would like Comtech Telecommunicatio odds to be computed.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Target Price Odds to finish over 3.06

The tendency of Comtech Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 3.06 90 days 3.06 
about 19.63
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Comtech Telecommunicatio to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 19.63 (This Comtech Telecommunications Corp probability density function shows the probability of Comtech Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Comtech Telecommunicatio has a beta of 0.82 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Comtech Telecommunicatio average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Comtech Telecommunications Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover Comtech Telecommunications Corp has an alpha of 1.2849, implying that it can generate a 1.28 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Comtech Telecommunicatio Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Comtech Telecommunicatio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Comtech Telecommunicatio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Comtech Telecommunicatio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.152.9515.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.316.2019.08
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.062.8915.77
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
14.3315.7517.48
Details

Comtech Telecommunicatio Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Comtech Telecommunicatio is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Comtech Telecommunicatio's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Comtech Telecommunications Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Comtech Telecommunicatio within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
1.28
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.82
σ
Overall volatility
0.62
Ir
Information ratio 0.10

Comtech Telecommunicatio Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Comtech Telecommunicatio for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Comtech Telecommunicatio can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Comtech Telecommunicatio is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Comtech Telecommunicatio appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 549.99 M. Net Loss for the year was (26.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 184.46 M.
Comtech Telecommunications Corp currently holds about 21.65 M in cash with (4.43 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.78.
Roughly 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Comtech Telecommunications Delays Filings Again, Deepening Financial Uncertainty Hagens Berman

Comtech Telecommunicatio Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Comtech Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Comtech Telecommunicatio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Comtech Telecommunicatio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding28 M
Cash And Short Term Investments19 M

Comtech Telecommunicatio Technical Analysis

Comtech Telecommunicatio's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Comtech Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Comtech Telecommunications Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Comtech Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Predictive Forecast Models

Comtech Telecommunicatio's time-series forecasting models is one of many Comtech Telecommunicatio's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Comtech Telecommunicatio's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Comtech Telecommunicatio

Checking the ongoing alerts about Comtech Telecommunicatio for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Comtech Telecommunicatio help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Comtech Telecommunicatio is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Comtech Telecommunicatio appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 549.99 M. Net Loss for the year was (26.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 184.46 M.
Comtech Telecommunications Corp currently holds about 21.65 M in cash with (4.43 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.78.
Roughly 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Comtech Telecommunications Delays Filings Again, Deepening Financial Uncertainty Hagens Berman

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Comtech Stock

When determining whether Comtech Telecommunicatio is a strong investment it is important to analyze Comtech Telecommunicatio's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Comtech Telecommunicatio's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Comtech Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comtech Telecommunicatio. If investors know Comtech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comtech Telecommunicatio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
5.87
Earnings Share
(1.40)
Revenue Per Share
19.683
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
Return On Assets
0.0103
The market value of Comtech Telecommunicatio is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comtech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comtech Telecommunicatio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comtech Telecommunicatio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comtech Telecommunicatio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comtech Telecommunicatio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comtech Telecommunicatio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Comtech Telecommunicatio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comtech Telecommunicatio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.