Canadian Natural Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 77.07
| CNQ Stock | USD 77.07 0.30 0.39% |
Closest to current price Canadian long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Canadian |
Canadian Natural Target Price Odds to finish over 77.07
The tendency of Canadian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 77.07 | 90 days | 77.07 | about 15.44 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Canadian Natural to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 15.44 (This Canadian Natural Resources probability density function shows the probability of Canadian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Canadian Natural has a beta of 1.0 suggesting Canadian Natural Resources market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Canadian Natural is expected to follow. Additionally Canadian Natural Resources has an alpha of 0.2491, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Canadian Natural Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Canadian Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canadian Natural Res. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Canadian Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Canadian Natural Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Canadian Natural is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Canadian Natural's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Canadian Natural Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Canadian Natural within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.00 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Canadian Natural Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Canadian Natural for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Canadian Natural Res can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has 12.35 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.38, which is OK given its current industry classification. Canadian Natural Res has a current ratio of 0.76, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Canadian Natural until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Canadian Natural's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Canadian Natural Res sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Canadian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Canadian Natural's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 79.0% of Canadian Natural shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 5th of April 2024 Canadian Natural paid $ 0.7741 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from oilprice.com: U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela Snap Back Into Place |
Canadian Natural Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Canadian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Canadian Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Canadian Natural Technical Analysis
Canadian Natural's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Canadian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Canadian Natural Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Canadian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Canadian Natural Predictive Forecast Models
Canadian Natural's time-series forecasting models is one of many Canadian Natural's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Canadian Natural's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Canadian Natural Res
Checking the ongoing alerts about Canadian Natural for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Canadian Natural Res help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has 12.35 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.38, which is OK given its current industry classification. Canadian Natural Res has a current ratio of 0.76, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Canadian Natural until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Canadian Natural's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Canadian Natural Res sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Canadian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Canadian Natural's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 79.0% of Canadian Natural shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 5th of April 2024 Canadian Natural paid $ 0.7741 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from oilprice.com: U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela Snap Back Into Place |
Check out Canadian Natural Backtesting, Canadian Natural Valuation, Canadian Natural Correlation, Canadian Natural Hype Analysis, Canadian Natural Volatility, Canadian Natural History as well as Canadian Natural Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Canadian Stock analysis
When running Canadian Natural's price analysis, check to measure Canadian Natural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Canadian Natural is operating at the current time. Most of Canadian Natural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Canadian Natural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Canadian Natural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Canadian Natural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Canadian Natural's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Canadian Natural. If investors know Canadian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Canadian Natural listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.765 | Dividend Share 3.7 | Earnings Share 5.43 | Revenue Per Share 32.958 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Canadian Natural Res is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Canadian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Canadian Natural's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Canadian Natural's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Canadian Natural's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Canadian Natural's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Canadian Natural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Canadian Natural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Canadian Natural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.