ConocoPhillips Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 115.93

COP
 Stock
  

USD 115.93  0.31  0.27%   

ConocoPhillips' future price is the expected price of ConocoPhillips instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ConocoPhillips performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
ConocoPhillips' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on ConocoPhillips. Implied volatility approximates the future value of ConocoPhillips based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in ConocoPhillips over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-07 CALL at $116.0 is a CALL option contract on ConocoPhillips' common stock with a strick price of 116.0 expiring on 2022-10-07. The contract was last traded on 2022-10-04 at 15:47:00 for $1.98 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.84, and an ask price of $2.11. The implied volatility as of the 5th of October is 63.1869. View All ConocoPhillips options

Closest to current price ConocoPhillips long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to ConocoPhillips Backtesting, ConocoPhillips Valuation, ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Hype Analysis, ConocoPhillips Volatility, ConocoPhillips History as well as ConocoPhillips Performance. Please specify ConocoPhillips time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like ConocoPhillips odds to be computed.

ConocoPhillips Target Price Odds to finish over 115.93

The tendency of ConocoPhillips Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 115.93 90 days 115.93 
about 6.52
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ConocoPhillips to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 6.52 (This ConocoPhillips probability density function shows the probability of ConocoPhillips Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.08 suggesting ConocoPhillips market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, ConocoPhillips is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4354, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   ConocoPhillips Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ConocoPhillips

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ConocoPhillips. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ConocoPhillips' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ConocoPhillips in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
114.11116.71119.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
106.46109.06127.52
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
77.0090.69100.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ConocoPhillips. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ConocoPhillips' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ConocoPhillips' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ConocoPhillips.

ConocoPhillips Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ConocoPhillips is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ConocoPhillips' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ConocoPhillips, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ConocoPhillips within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.44
β
Beta against DOW1.08
σ
Overall volatility
10.44
Ir
Information ratio 0.16

ConocoPhillips Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ConocoPhillips for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ConocoPhillips can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of September 2022 ConocoPhillips paid $ 0.46 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from uk.movies.yahoo.com: As ConocoPhillips market cap dropped by US17b, insiders who sold US4.6m worth of stock were able to offset their losses - Yahoo Movies UK

ConocoPhillips Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ConocoPhillips Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ConocoPhillips' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConocoPhillips' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.07%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.69
Short Percent Of Float1.07%
Float Shares1.29B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day7.6M
Shares Short Prior Month17.25M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month6.98M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.46%

ConocoPhillips Technical Analysis

ConocoPhillips' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ConocoPhillips Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ConocoPhillips. In general, you should focus on analyzing ConocoPhillips Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ConocoPhillips Predictive Forecast Models

ConocoPhillips time-series forecasting models is one of many ConocoPhillips' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary ConocoPhillips' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about ConocoPhillips

Checking the ongoing alerts about ConocoPhillips for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ConocoPhillips help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of September 2022 ConocoPhillips paid $ 0.46 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from uk.movies.yahoo.com: As ConocoPhillips market cap dropped by US17b, insiders who sold US4.6m worth of stock were able to offset their losses - Yahoo Movies UK
Continue to ConocoPhillips Backtesting, ConocoPhillips Valuation, ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Hype Analysis, ConocoPhillips Volatility, ConocoPhillips History as well as ConocoPhillips Performance. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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When running ConocoPhillips price analysis, check to measure ConocoPhillips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConocoPhillips is operating at the current time. Most of ConocoPhillips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConocoPhillips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConocoPhillips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConocoPhillips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ConocoPhillips' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConocoPhillips. If investors know ConocoPhillips will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConocoPhillips listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of ConocoPhillips is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConocoPhillips that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConocoPhillips' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConocoPhillips' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConocoPhillips' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConocoPhillips' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ConocoPhillips' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ConocoPhillips value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConocoPhillips' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.