Conocophillips Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 127.52

COP Stock  USD 126.84  0.85  0.67%   
ConocoPhillips' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on ConocoPhillips. Implied volatility approximates the future value of ConocoPhillips based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in ConocoPhillips over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $127.0 is a CALL option contract on ConocoPhillips' common stock with a strick price of 127.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:58:36 for $0.46 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.41, and an ask price of $0.55. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 20.21. View All ConocoPhillips options

Closest to current price ConocoPhillips long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

ConocoPhillips' future price is the expected price of ConocoPhillips instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ConocoPhillips performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out ConocoPhillips Backtesting, ConocoPhillips Valuation, ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Hype Analysis, ConocoPhillips Volatility, ConocoPhillips History as well as ConocoPhillips Performance.
To learn how to invest in ConocoPhillips Stock, please use our How to Invest in ConocoPhillips guide.
  
At this time, ConocoPhillips' Price To Sales Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Price Book Value Ratio is likely to grow to 2.97, while Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to drop 4.14. Please specify ConocoPhillips' target price for which you would like ConocoPhillips odds to be computed.

ConocoPhillips Target Price Odds to finish over 127.52

The tendency of ConocoPhillips Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 127.52  or more in 90 days
 126.84 90 days 127.52 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ConocoPhillips to move over $ 127.52  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ConocoPhillips probability density function shows the probability of ConocoPhillips Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ConocoPhillips price to stay between its current price of $ 126.84  and $ 127.52  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon ConocoPhillips has a beta of 0.59 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ConocoPhillips average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ConocoPhillips will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ConocoPhillips has an alpha of 0.0501, implying that it can generate a 0.0501 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   ConocoPhillips Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ConocoPhillips

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ConocoPhillips. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ConocoPhillips' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
125.62126.94128.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
120.71122.03139.52
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
127.48128.80130.12
Details
27 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
118.22129.91144.20
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ConocoPhillips. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ConocoPhillips' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ConocoPhillips' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ConocoPhillips.

ConocoPhillips Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ConocoPhillips is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ConocoPhillips' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ConocoPhillips, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ConocoPhillips within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.05
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.59
σ
Overall volatility
4.79
Ir
Information ratio -0.001

ConocoPhillips Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ConocoPhillips for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ConocoPhillips can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of March 2024 ConocoPhillips paid $ 0.2 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Phillips 66 Rises Higher Than Market Key Facts

ConocoPhillips Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ConocoPhillips Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ConocoPhillips' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConocoPhillips' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.2 B
Cash And Short Term Investments6.6 B

ConocoPhillips Technical Analysis

ConocoPhillips' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ConocoPhillips Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ConocoPhillips. In general, you should focus on analyzing ConocoPhillips Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ConocoPhillips Predictive Forecast Models

ConocoPhillips' time-series forecasting models is one of many ConocoPhillips' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ConocoPhillips' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about ConocoPhillips

Checking the ongoing alerts about ConocoPhillips for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ConocoPhillips help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of March 2024 ConocoPhillips paid $ 0.2 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Phillips 66 Rises Higher Than Market Key Facts
When determining whether ConocoPhillips is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if ConocoPhillips Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Conocophillips Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Conocophillips Stock:

Complementary Tools for ConocoPhillips Stock analysis

When running ConocoPhillips' price analysis, check to measure ConocoPhillips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConocoPhillips is operating at the current time. Most of ConocoPhillips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConocoPhillips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConocoPhillips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConocoPhillips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ConocoPhillips' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConocoPhillips. If investors know ConocoPhillips will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConocoPhillips listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.03)
Dividend Share
4.61
Earnings Share
9.06
Revenue Per Share
48.107
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.21)
The market value of ConocoPhillips is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConocoPhillips that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConocoPhillips' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConocoPhillips' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConocoPhillips' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConocoPhillips' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ConocoPhillips' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ConocoPhillips is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConocoPhillips' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.