Salesforce Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 132.65

CRM Stock  USD 171.82  3.85  2.29%   
Salesforce's future price is the expected price of Salesforce instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Salesforce performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is expected to hike to 5.20 this year. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to hike to 191.16 this year.
  
Salesforce's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Salesforce. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Salesforce based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Salesforce over a specific time period. For example, 2023-02-03 CALL at $172.5 is a CALL option contract on Salesforce's common stock with a strick price of 172.5 expiring on 2023-02-03. The contract was last traded on 2023-02-01 at 15:59:04 for $1.92 and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.85, and an ask price of $1.97. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of February is 43.7709. View All Salesforce options

Closest to current price Salesforce long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Salesforce Backtesting, Salesforce Valuation, Salesforce Correlation, Salesforce Hype Analysis, Salesforce Volatility, Salesforce History as well as Salesforce Performance. Please specify Salesforce time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Salesforce odds to be computed.

Salesforce Target Price Odds to finish over 132.65

The tendency of Salesforce Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 132.65  in 90 days
 171.82 90 days 132.65 
about 86.69
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Salesforce to stay above $ 132.65  in 90 days from now is about 86.69 (This Salesforce probability density function shows the probability of Salesforce Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Salesforce price to stay between $ 132.65  and its current price of $171.82 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.15 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.83 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Salesforce will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Salesforce is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Salesforce Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Salesforce

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Salesforce. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Salesforce's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Salesforce in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
168.84171.82174.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
154.64206.37209.35
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
167.99170.97173.94
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
233.00320.90365.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Salesforce. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Salesforce's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Salesforce's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Salesforce.

Salesforce Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Salesforce is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Salesforce's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Salesforce, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Salesforce within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.13
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.83
σ
Overall volatility
11.97
Ir
Information ratio -0.0015

Salesforce Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Salesforce Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Salesforce's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Salesforce's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding974 M
Cash And Short Term Investments10.5 B

Salesforce Technical Analysis

Salesforce's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Salesforce Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Salesforce. In general, you should focus on analyzing Salesforce Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Salesforce Predictive Forecast Models

Salesforce time-series forecasting models is one of many Salesforce's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Salesforce's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Salesforce Investors Sentiment

The influence of Salesforce's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Salesforce. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Salesforce's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Salesforce. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Salesforce can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Salesforce. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Salesforce's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Salesforce's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Salesforce's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Salesforce.

Salesforce Implied Volatility

    
  48.27  
Salesforce's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Salesforce stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Salesforce's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Salesforce stock will not fluctuate a lot when Salesforce's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Salesforce in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Salesforce's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Salesforce options trading.
Continue to Salesforce Backtesting, Salesforce Valuation, Salesforce Correlation, Salesforce Hype Analysis, Salesforce Volatility, Salesforce History as well as Salesforce Performance. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Salesforce price analysis, check to measure Salesforce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Salesforce is operating at the current time. Most of Salesforce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Salesforce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Salesforce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Salesforce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Salesforce's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Salesforce. If investors know Salesforce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Salesforce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.55) 
Market Capitalization
168 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.142
Return On Assets
0.0035
Return On Equity
0.4776
The market value of Salesforce is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Salesforce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Salesforce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Salesforce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Salesforce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Salesforce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Salesforce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Salesforce value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Salesforce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.